NATO Stratcom Ilmars Znotins/Stringer

俄罗斯对西方的混合战争

布鲁塞尔—美国联邦调查局和中央情报局都认定俄罗斯进行了黑客和造谣行动,目标是影响美国总统大选,让唐纳德·特朗普获利。我们也许永远无法知道俄罗斯的网络行动到底有多成功,但我们确实知道克里姆林宫得到了想要的结果。《时代》杂志将特朗普列为年度人物是错误的。显然,今年是俄罗斯总统普京之年。

对美国发动攻击也许是进一步干涉欧洲选举的先声。2017年,欧洲将进行一系列选举,包括荷兰、德国和法国等国家,目前官员正在竞相对抗俄罗斯的网络行动。过去对欧洲的网络袭击构成了一副与被控为俄罗斯支持的入侵美国民主党全国委员会的行动极为相似的神秘图景。

2015年初,一个与俄罗斯政府有关的集团侵入德国联邦众议员,窃取机密档案并泄露给维基解密(WikiLeaks)由后者公之于众。德国联邦宪法维护局指责俄罗斯精心策划了针对德国政府计算机系统的类似袭击。与此同时,11月欧盟委员会也遭遇大规模网络袭击,尽管罪魁仍不清楚,但有能力进行如此行动的人和组织少之又少。

网络袭击只不过是俄罗斯正在向西方发起的更广泛的混合战争的一个要素。俄罗斯还支持欧洲各国的极右翼民族主义组织和民粹主义运动,比如增加对法国国民阵线的马琳·勒庞(Marine Le Pen)的贷款、将俄罗斯国有电视网络今日俄罗斯(Russia Today)黄金档留给英国独立党政客等。

美国总统奥巴马终于宣称要对普京攻击美国民主的行为做出反应,但他早就应该这样做,并且应该做得更多。欧洲人还指望获得即将上任的特朗普政府的支持简直可谓愚蠢。特朗普的主要战略助手史蒂芬·巴农(Stephen Bannon)是美国“另类右翼”谣言网站Breitbart News的前执行主席,他公开为勒庞提供帮助,以助其赢得明年春天的法国总统大选。

俄罗斯官方来源也承认,他们今年在外国媒体宣传方面的支出就高达12亿欧元。欧盟出现了成千上万家假新闻网站,其中许多所有权十分模糊:匈牙利谣言网站数量在2014年翻了一番;而在捷克和斯洛伐克,42家新网站正在污染欧盟的信息生态系统。此外,克里姆林宫还比较公开地投入数亿美元用于宣传机构——比如Sputnik“新闻”社——虽然俄罗斯经济举步维艰。

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俄罗斯的谣言运动复杂而多面,但它们的一个共同任务是破坏人们对西方民主当局的信任。社交媒体“水军”是其中一个方法。社交媒体也是依靠历史修正主义(标志之一是认为俄罗斯独力打赢了二战)、阴谋论(在欧洲和美国民粹主义运动中间推广,一个伎俩是指责西方掀起了乌克兰战争)和否认现实(如俄罗斯出兵克里米亚和乌克兰)的俄罗斯战略的关键要素。

为了抵御这一攻势,西方应该促进媒体自由,奖励问责,提供关闭系统性造谣的频道的法律途径。一个好消息是欧盟最新修订了2017年预算,以加强欧洲对外行动局(European External Action Service)的StratCom团队。StratCom团队一直处于资金严重短缺状态,尽管它肩负揭露和揭穿谣言的重要任务。但欧盟和北约还应该从美国选举中汲取教训,加强欧洲集体网络防御,敦促成员国加强自身网络能力。在政治方面,必须让普京知道对国家选举的外部干涉将给俄罗斯经济利益带来严重后果。

除了政府行动,私人部门和公民社会组织也应该采取行动证实网络新闻报道是否准确、平衡和可信。各组织合作能够带来不同。比如,俄罗斯关闭了其Sputnik瑞典语版,因为瑞典媒体组织从不使用它的产品。

但尽管Facebook已经表示将改善内容审查程序,自愿的措施仍然是不够的:一些德国立法者建议需要通过立法来清理社交媒体平台。但欧洲的最强防御乃是其新闻自由,以及致力于揭露谎言的非政府组织。

欧洲人决不可对当前的新闻自由状态沾沾自喜。毕竟,Breitbart News已经进入英国并计划在全欧洲扩张。特朗普当选后不出几天,《纽约时报》就报道说“马里昂·勒庞,马琳·勒庞的侄女兼国民阵线的新兴力量,发Tweet说‘我答应了史蒂芬·巴农……的合作邀请’。”

西方民主国家已经进入了动荡期,而俄罗斯也不再按照哪怕在冷战最黑暗的时期也起到效果的游戏规则行事了。普京积极地实施着针对西方的混合战争,而我们才刚刚开始理解这场战争,根本无法面对。我们应该捍卫我们的价值观。今年让我们充分领教了普京对西方民主所造成的挑战。2017年,我们必须正面面对——并击败——他的战术。

http://prosyn.org/ReJKnyF/zh;
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