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The US-China Trade War Heats Up

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Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Carl Bildt, Dani Rodrik, Qiyuan Xu, Arvind Subramanian

A spate of new US tariffs on Chinese goods has raised the specter of full economic decoupling between the world’s two largest economies. For many observers, the measures are not only misguided, but also counter-productive, with the potential to undermine economic dynamism, hamper climate action, and trigger geopolitical conflict.

  1. op_rajan4_MANJUNATH KIRANAFP via Getty Images_Indiastartup Manjunath Kiran/AFP via Getty Images

    The Indian Election and the Country’s Economic Future

    Raghuram G. Rajan

    Economically, India today feels like a place of limitless possibilities. But with only a narrow window in which to grow rich before it grows old, the policy decisions it makes today will have an outsize influence on its future prospects.

    worries that the country will squander its massive potential by trying to emulate China's growth strategy.
  2. op_janeway16_SAUL LOEBAFP via Getty Images_bidenchips Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

    The Rise of Mesoeconomics

    William H. Janeway explains how a long-neglected field of economic study can be applied to today's most pressing policy challenges.
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    Adekeye Adebajo on the Non-Aligned Movement, United Nations peacekeeping, African institution-building, and more

    Adekeye Adebajo argues that Israel’s war in Gaza is accelerating the trend toward global apartheid, highlights the strengths and weaknesses of United Nations peacekeeping missions, criticizes the militarization of US engagement with Africa, and more.
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    How Exceptional Is China’s Crony-Capitalist Boom?

    Yuen Yuen Ang explains how corruption both drove the country's GDP growth and sowed the seeds for its current economic problems.
  6. bp india election Photo by SAJJAD HUSSAIN/AFP via Getty Images

    Will India’s Election Destroy Its Democracy?

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    Gaurav Dalmia , Ashoka Mody , Shashi Tharoor , Pranab Bardhan , Debasish Roy Chowdhury

    Since taking power in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party have stoked Hindu nationalism, hollowed out India’s democracy, and overseen an economy that is probably performing far worse than official figures suggest. And yet Modi and the BJP are genuinely popular, making them likely – though not certain – to emerge victorious when the ongoing parliamentary election concludes in June.

  7. op_rchowdhury1_Drew AngererGetty Images_modi Drew Angerer/Getty Images

    India’s Despotic Election

    Debasish Roy Chowdhury explains how Prime Minister Narendra Modi has eroded democratic safeguards and stacked the deck in his favor.
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    Alison L. LaCroix on the US Supreme Court, immigration policy, federalism, and more

    Alison L. LaCroix explains why “originalist” methods of constitutional interpretation are deeply ahistorical, describes the zero-sum relationship between state and federal power in modern America, identifies possible historical analogues for the upcoming US presidential election, and more.
  9. op_ghilarducci1_Jeffrey GreenbergUniversal Images Group via Getty Images_USelderlyworker Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    The Perils of Retirement in America

    Teresa Ghilarducci proposes a Grey New Deal that would boost economic security for all US workers in old age.
  10. GettyImages-2149550584 Photo by MARK PETERSON/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

    Trump on Trial

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    Nancy Isenberg , Eric Posner , Reed Galen , Richard K. Sherwin , William L. Silber

    From a long list of criminal indictments to unfavorable voter demographics, there is plenty standing between presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump and a second term in the White House. But a Trump victory in the November election remains a distinct possibility – and a cause for serious economic concern.

  11. bp iran israel Photo by Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu via Getty Images

    An Iran-Israel War?

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    Daoud Kuttab , Gareth Evans , Dennis Ross , Joschka Fischer

    Iran’s mass ballistic missile and drone attack on Israel last week raised anew the specter of a widening Middle East war that draws in Iran and its proxies, as well as Western countries like the United States. The urgent need to defuse tensions – starting by ending Israel’s war in Gaza and pursuing a lasting political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – is obvious, but can it be done?

  12. op_roach3_ Kevin FrayerGetty Images_china lagging consumption Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

    China’s Rebalancing Imperative

    Stephen S. Roach explains why the Chinese authorities should switch to a consumption- and productivity-led growth model.
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    Minxin Pei on China’s economy, surveillance state, repression of dissent, and more

    Minxin Pei doubts China’s government is willing to do what is needed to restore growth, describes the low-tech approaches taken by the country’s vast security apparatus, considers the Chinese social-credit system’s repressive potential, and more.
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    Can China Get Out of Its Rut?

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    Yang Yao, Yu Yongding, Nouriel Roubini, Yi Fuxian, Stephen S. Roach, Nancy Qian

    China’s authorities have powerful economic-policy levers at their disposal to achieve their 5% growth target this year and put the economy on a more sustainable long-term growth path. But several trends – from the shift toward state capitalism to population aging to the loss of goodwill between Chinese and Americans – could thwart China’s ambition to join the ranks of high-income countries by mid-century.

“It is better to ask forgiveness than permission” has been the mantra of the digital revolution so far, and one should not expect that to change with artificial intelligence. For those already in a position to dominate this potentially groundbreaking sector, the opportunities are too enticing to miss.

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