The Big Picture

After a gradual decade-long democratization process, Myanmar’s military seized power again in February and is waging a ruthless crackdown against unarmed civilian protesters. A major escalation of the ongoing turmoil – civil war is a growing possibility – would have implications far beyond the country’s borders.

As the world strives to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, economists’ efforts to devise strategies to generate inclusive and sustainable prosperity have taken on greater urgency. But those efforts will not succeed unless the profession itself becomes more inclusive – in terms of gender, ethnicity, national origin, and the intellectual assumptions and methods it employs.

Many fear that sharp differences in the speed of vaccine rollouts and the scale of stimulus measures will result in a K-shaped global economic recovery, with much of the developed world booming while poorer countries continue to struggle. But if policymakers are not careful, advanced economies also could experience highly uneven post-pandemic growth.

The European Union’s sluggish COVID-19 vaccination efforts are currently dominating the headlines and undermining confidence in the bloc. But, overall, rich countries remain well ahead of the developing world in the global scramble for supplies – and the longer this imbalance persists, the greater the risk that new coronavirus variants will emerge that can again threaten the world.

The COVID-19 pandemic may be speeding the demise of cash, but it seems premature to declare digital money a winner in the current economic crisis. Many regard privately issued cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as dangerously volatile, while central bank digital currencies could impose their own unexpected costs and risks on the global monetary system.

Huge fiscal and monetary stimulus programs have sparked a growing debate about whether advanced economies may sooner or later experience the sort of rapid price growth last seen a generation ago. While stimulus advocates point to current weak demand and the public’s deeply ingrained low-inflation expectations, anxious hawks fear that a new and dangerous global inflationary consensus may be taking hold.

Many would regard the middle of a pandemic-induced economic crisis as the wrong time to sound the alarm about the potential dangers of profligate government spending. But as US President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan works its way through Congress, it is not only Republicans who are asking whether providing too much fiscal stimulus could be just as risky as delivering too little.

Although the arrest and hasty imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny triggered Russia’s biggest wave of protests in years, President Vladimir Putin’s regime appears to be in little danger for now. But a stagnant economy, mounting anger at high-level corruption, and restless political elites could sooner or later threaten Putin’s seemingly well-entrenched regime.

Calls by US President Joe Biden and others to “build back better” after the COVID-19 catastrophe have attracted widespread support, raising hopes of far-reaching changes in policymaking and business. But which new norms and concrete measures lie beyond leaders’ hortatory appeals, and who should implement them?

Global inequality has unexpectedly declined during the pandemic – not because poorer countries became richer, but because richer countries became poorer. Many emerging and developing economies remain as fragile as ever, and the nature of the current convergence potentially threatens their future growth prospects.

Rich-country governments, desperate to revive their economies, are pursuing vaccine nationalism and turning their backs on the developing world. But a healthy, peaceful, and prosperous Africa is in their interests, too, and can be achieved by implementing the vision and policies needed to boost the continent’s global standing and economic prospects.

Tackling the COVID-19 pandemic and engineering an economic recovery are only two of the challenges facing new US President Joe Biden. Amid deep social divisions and the continued threat of right-wing extremist violence, Biden must also try to re-establish democratic political norms and restore trust in American leadership at home and abroad.