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Will India’s Election Destroy Its Democracy?

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Gaurav Dalmia, Ashoka Mody, Shashi Tharoor, Pranab Bardhan, Debasish Roy Chowdhury

Since taking power in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party have stoked Hindu nationalism, hollowed out India’s democracy, and overseen an economy that is probably performing far worse than official figures suggest. And yet Modi and the BJP are genuinely popular, making them likely – though not certain – to emerge victorious when the ongoing parliamentary election concludes in June.

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    Trump on Trial

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    Nancy Isenberg , Eric Posner , Reed Galen , Richard K. Sherwin , William L. Silber

    From a long list of criminal indictments to unfavorable voter demographics, there is plenty standing between presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump and a second term in the White House. But a Trump victory in the November election remains a distinct possibility – and a cause for serious economic concern.

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    An Iran-Israel War?

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    Daoud Kuttab , Gareth Evans , Dennis Ross , Joschka Fischer

    Iran’s mass ballistic missile and drone attack on Israel last week raised anew the specter of a widening Middle East war that draws in Iran and its proxies, as well as Western countries like the United States. The urgent need to defuse tensions – starting by ending Israel’s war in Gaza and pursuing a lasting political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – is obvious, but can it be done?

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    Can China Get Out of Its Rut?

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    Yang Yao , Yu Yongding , Nouriel Roubini , Yi Fuxian , Stephen S. Roach , Nancy Qian

    China’s authorities have powerful economic-policy levers at their disposal to achieve their 5% growth target this year and put the economy on a more sustainable long-term growth path. But several trends – from the shift toward state capitalism to population aging to the loss of goodwill between Chinese and Americans – could thwart China’s ambition to join the ranks of high-income countries by mid-century.

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    The Immigration Tinderbox

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    Alison L. LaCroix , Nancy Qian , Anne O. Krueger , Soňa Muzikárová , Federico Fubini

    In the United States and Europe, immigration tends to divide people into opposing camps: those who claim that newcomers undermine economic opportunity and security for locals, and those who argue that welcoming migrants and refugees is a moral and economic imperative. How should one make sense of a debate that is often based on motivated reasoning, with emotion and underlying biases affecting the selection and interpretation of evidence?

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    The Global Economy’s Biggest Untapped Resource

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    Indermit Gill , Tea Trumbic , Nadia Calviño , Kristalina Georgieva , Odile Renaud-Basso , Rudo Kayombo , Yanis Varoufakis

    At the current rate of progress, it will take about 300 years to end child marriage, 286 years to deliver full gender equality under the law, and 140 years to achieve equal representation in leadership positions in the workplace, the United Nations reports. This moral failure is compounded by its enormous opportunity cost: a massive improvement in human welfare.

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    How Resilient Is Putin?

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    Anastassia Fedyk , Yuriy Gorodnichenko , Michael R. Strain , Nina L. Khrushcheva , Robin Brooks , Simon Johnson , Ian Buruma

    As Russia prepares for another sham presidential election, the West is introducing new sanctions over the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, considering seizing some $300 billion of Russian central-bank assets, and struggling to overcome political hurdles to continued support for Ukraine. How, if at all, will these developments affect Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on political power?

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    Europe Must Defend Itself

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    Joschka Fischer , Philippe Legrain , Mark Leonard , Daniela Schwarzer

    Donald Trump – who spent his presidency lambasting NATO – recently suggested that he would encourage Russian aggression against NATO allies that had not met their commitment to spend 2% of GDP on defense. With Trump vying for another term in the White House – and the Ukraine war still raging on the European Union’s doorstep – EU countries can no longer ignore the difficult but essential task of taking charge of their own security.

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    Defensive Democracy

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    Eric Posner , Jan-Werner Mueller , Michael Bröning , Daniela Schwarzer , Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

    As the US Supreme Court weighs whether Donald Trump is eligible to appear on the Colorado primary ballot – and, effectively, to run in this year’s presidential election – Germany is engaged in a heated debate about whether to ban the far-right Alternative für Deutschland. While disqualification of anti-democratic candidates and parties has been the exception in the world’s democracies, has it now become necessary?

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    What Will the Next Three Months Mean for Gaza and the Middle East?

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    Shlomo Ben-Ami , Charles A. Kupchan , Mark Leonard

    After months of relentless aerial bombardments and a ground invasion, divisions within Israel over the way forward in Gaza are becoming increasingly apparent, and the international community’s patience appears to be wearing thin. With the humanitarian crisis in Gaza deepening – and the risk of regional escalation growing – we asked PS commentators what the next phase of the war may bring.

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    Preventing Big AI

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    Mike Loukides , Tim O'Reilly , Eric Posner , Diane Coyle , Ian Ayres , Aaron Edlin , Robert J. Shiller , Giulio Boccaletti , Carme Artigas , James Manyika , Ian Bremmer , Marietje Schaake

    Predictions that generative artificial intelligence could revolutionize everything from manufacturing to health care, and even upend creative industries, are fast becoming reality. But with every fresh development and novel application seeming to bring new questions and challenges, how can regulators and policymakers uphold the public interest?

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    A New Year of Economic Risks

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    Jim O'Neill , Nouriel Roubini , Mohamed A. El-Erian , Kenneth Rogoff , Indermit Gill , M. Ayhan Kose , Dani Rodrik

    As 2024 begins, most economists and market analysts are significantly more optimistic about the global economy’s prospects than they were a year ago. But growing geopolitical and other risks – all of which threaten developed and developing economies alike – leave no room for complacency.

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    Could Trump Be a Dictator?

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    Sergei Guriev , Aziz Huq , Nicholas Reed Langen , Michael Lind

    During his first term in the White House, Donald Trump tested America’s constitutional system like no president before him. With Trump almost certain to clinch the Republican Party nomination for next year’s election, we asked PS commentators whether that system could hold him in check for another four years.

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