Steam and exhaust pipes Lukas Schulze/Getty Images

守住1.5°C 的气候变化临界值

马尼拉——今天的地球气温比前工业化时代高1°C,并且可怕的发烧症状已经显露出来了。仅今年一年,接连不断的飓风就已经摧毁了加勒比群岛,季风所引发的洪水已导致南亚数千万人流离失所,而且大火在几乎每一个洲尽情肆虐。将地球从崩溃的边缘拉回来已经是十万火急的任务。

The Year Ahead 2018

The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

Order now

我们生活在气候变化前沿的人——包括群岛、小岛、沿海低地以及快速荒漠化的平原——绝不能坐视气候变暖升级会带来哪些后果。已经有太多生命和谋生手段正在我们面前消失掉。人们无家可归,重要的资源正日益稀缺,而那些对气候变化最没有责任的人却正在承受最严重的后果。

正因如此,菲律宾人利用担任气候变迁脆弱国家论坛(CVF)轮值主席国的机会——该论坛的48个成员国在承受气候变化冲击时首当其冲——竭力确保实现2015年巴黎气候协定明确限制全球温度比前工业化时期高1.5°C的目标。对我们而言, 1.5°C绝不仅仅是国际协定中象征性或“梦寐以求”的数字;而是摆在面前的生存限度。如果全球气温高于这个水平,那么我们称之为家的地方——还有这个星球上其他很多家园——都会变得不再适宜居住甚至彻底消失掉。

2009年当我们首次提出1.5°C的目标时,我们遇到的阻力很大。气候变化否定者——那些拒绝相信人为造成全球变暖这一科学事实的人——继续否定防止地球温度升高的作用,认为这样做既徒劳无功又毫无必要。但就连善意的气候变化倡导者和决策者往往也反对 1.5°C的目标,他们认为根据科学,人类已经排放的温室气体已经使得该目标几乎不可能实现了。

不过在这方面,科学的结论并不像看上去那样明确。《自然》杂志最近一篇论文显示,世界剩余的“碳预算”——也就是我们在跨过1.5°C的临界值之前还可以排放的二氧化碳量——在某种程度上比之前想象的要多。

与某些评论人士(而非科学家)不同的是,这一发现并非自满的理由。这并不意味着以前的气候模式过于危言耸听,或者我们在控制全球变暖的问题上可以有某种程度的放松。相反,这篇论文应当激励——并且在事实上呼吁——采取更加直接、深思熟虑和积极的行动,以确保温室气体排放在几年内达到峰值,并力争在本世纪中叶实现零净排放。

这究竟是一次什么样的行动?全球排放每年要减少4~6%,直至实现零排放。与此同时,我们必须恢复森林和耕地,以便捕获和隔离更多的二氧化碳排放。在40年内实现能源和交通系统彻底去碳化需要付出巨大的努力,但却是可能实现的目标。

除环境后果外,这样的努力也将带来巨大的经济效益,其中包括通过促进创造就业机会帮助发达国家中产阶级并促使发展中国家数亿人摆脱贫困。能源转型将大大提高节能效率,同时提高发展中国家,尤其是脆弱地区的基础设施、供应链和城市服务弹性。

联合国开发计划署去年发布的一份报告显示,保持 1.5°C的临界值和创造低碳经济与世界延续当前的政策和减排承诺相比,将使全球GDP增加12万亿美元。

声称 1.5°C目标可以实现的论文是由广受尊敬的气候专家撰写,并在经过广泛的同行审议后在一家一流杂志上发表。但这仅仅是一篇论文;了解我们限制全球变暖的能力还有许多工作要做。顶尖科学家因此已经在探讨和争论相关发现;他们的回应文章同样将发表在一流杂志上。这就是科学研究的运作方式,也是我们相信气候科学的理由——我们同样相信它的紧急警告。

明年,政府间气候变化委员会将出版有关1.5°C目标的科学分析荟萃,这很有可能成为对类似研究成果最全面的汇总。但我们不能坐等分析结果出来才采取行动。

去年召开的联合国马拉喀什气候变化大会上,气候变迁脆弱国家论坛成员国已经承诺通过尽快完成向100%可再生能源转型的目标来做好本职工作。我们的排放已经是世界最小,但我们的气候目标却在全世界最雄心勃勃。

但世界能否最终遏制气候变化将取决于当前及历史最大温室气体排放国是否愿意履行道德及伦理责任并强力采取行动。全球温度变化保持在1.5°C以下现在在地球物理学上也许还不是不可能完成的任务。但为实现这一目标,我们必须保证人们不认为它在政治和经济上是不可能的。

翻译:Xu Binbin

http://prosyn.org/mtL4Zig/zh;

Handpicked to read next

  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now