A mining excavator Kirill Kikhmar/Getty Images

气候领导力意味着结束生产化石燃料

温哥华/柏林—化石燃料生产的重点已经可以望见。随着风能和太阳能等新能源表现屡屡超出人们的期望,电动汽车增长远超预测,全世界政府认识到应对气候变化的紧迫性,化石燃料生产的终结已是板上钉钉。

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但从某种程度上说,最为核心的问题并没有得到严肃的回答:我们有哪些告别石油、煤炭和天然气的计划?

这个问题变得越来越紧迫,因为从阿根廷到印度再到挪威,全世界政府都在支持继续生产化石燃料、勘探更多化石燃料的计划。这些政府现成新的化石燃料工程与它们根据巴黎协定所做出的承诺并不冲突,但事实是,即便是燃烧现有储量的化石燃料,也足以让全球气温升高到前工业化水平以上2℃以上——从而远超巴黎协定所自定的阈值。这充分体现了认知冲突。

现实是,从现在开始今天限制化石燃料生产,对于避免让日后退出化石燃料的转型变得更困难、代价更高昂的能源基础设施和政治动态的永久化至关重要。这就引出了关于股权的重要问题:由谁来出售最后一桶石油?谁来为向可再生能源的转型买单?谁来补偿受影响的社区和工人?但说到底,这些问题都必须解决,在气候正义的大环境中解决。

气候变化被称为现时代的道德挑战。光是在今年,全世界就遭遇到前所未见的洪水、飓风、山火和旱灾,几乎没有一个大洲可以幸免。但真正的风暴还没有到来。如果我们想避免其最恶劣的影响,仅仅告别头号气候杀手——煤炭是不够的。安全的气候未来还需要终结大石油(Big Oil)时代。

好消息是社会变迁不是一个渐进的线性过程。相反,它常常呈现出波浪式运动,技术进步、金融激励、政治领导、政策变化,以及——最重要的——社会动员所形成的合力,总是会给这些运动带来“引爆点”。如今,我们正在接近这样一个时刻。

首先,技术进步比任何人所想象的更快。二十年前,当我们刚开始致力于气候问题时,我们的工作方式是发送传真、打固定电话、在暗室中冲洗35毫米胶卷拍摄的照片。再过二十年,我们将生活在一个由太阳、潮汐和风来提供电能的世界。

此外,反对化石燃料发展的民意十分旺盛,这带来了政治压力和金融和法律风险。全世界普通老百姓都在努力阻止与气候安全的未来不相容的工程,比如举行游行反对美国达科塔输油管道(Dakota Access Pipeline)和英国金德尔摩根穿山管道系统(Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain Pipeline System);加入阻止北冰洋钻井活动的“爱斯基摩独木舟运动”(kayactivists);以及哥伦比亚的阻止石油和矿产项目的地方公投等。

最近,来自70多个国家的450多家组织签署了《罗佛敦宣言》(Lofoten Declaration),宣言明确呼吁有序退出化石燃料行业。宣言要求有能力者承担起领导责任;实现受影响群体的公平转型;以及为面临最艰巨挑战的国家提供支持。

富裕国家应该起到领导作用。比如,挪威不但是全世界最富裕的国家之一;也是第七大二氧化碳排放输出国,它仍在允许勘探和开发新的石油和天然气田。讨论中和即将开工的新项目可能让挪威所引发的排放提高150%。

如果挪威想要兑现其所自称的全球气候讨论领导者的角色,挪威政府就必须积极行动起来降低产量,同时支持转型期间受影响的工人和社区。另一个自视为气候领导者,但仍在继续开发新石油和天然气项目的富裕国家加拿大,也应该如此。

一些国家已经开始朝正确的方向前进。法国总统马克龙引入了一项法案,将在2040年全面禁止法国及其海外领地进行石油和天然勘探;苏格兰政府全面禁止了液压致裂法;哥斯达黎加现在绝大部分电力已不再依靠石油发出。但真正的工作还没有到来,即各国不但要取消新的化石燃料基础设施计划,还要退出已有体系。

摆脱化石燃料的经济可以通过设计实现,也可以自然形成。通过有目的的建设,我们可以解决股权和人权问题,确保转型的公平性和平稳性,以及能源基础设施具备生态可靠性和民主控制。如果我们完全放任情况自发发展,许多地区将充斥毫无用处的管道、烂尾的巨型矿井和削弱经济、导致政治极化和社会动荡的资产搁置。明智的选项只有一个。

全世界公民正在领衔奔向更好的未来的愿景——在这个未来中,社区而非公司负责管理作为公地(commons)的自然资源和生态系统,人民消费得更少,制造的有毒塑料垃圾也更少,享受一个总体更加健康的环境。实现这一愿景要依靠我们的未来领袖。他们必须积极致力于推动公正、智能地向未来无化石燃料社会的转变,而不是让这个未来变得更加难以实现、代价更加高昂。

(作者要感谢国际石油变化组织(Oil Change International)的汉娜·麦金农(Hannah McKinnon)对本评论的帮助。)

http://prosyn.org/kHKC5qK/zh;

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