Climate change protest in Germany Sascha Svhuermann/Getty Images

当气候领导者保护肮脏投资时

日内瓦—气候危机的解决方案常常诞生于大会中,接下来的两周毫无疑问将产生很多“答案”。大约20,000名代表已经来到德国波恩,参加新一轮联合国气候变化谈判

The Year Ahead 2018

The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

Order now

波恩的谈判应该聚焦于实施巴黎气候协定。应该怎么做是显而易见的。要将全球气温控制在巴黎所指定的范围内——较前工业化水平升温“显著低于2℃”——唯一的办法是让资本远离化石燃料,涌向零碳项目。而要想实现这一点,就必须改变全球能源投资管理。

目前,领导气候变化斗争的各国政府,都仍然在支持和保护化石燃料勘探、采掘和运输的项目投资。这些政府没有投资于高效率的住房、零碳交通、可再生能源和更好的土地使用体系,它们说一套做一套。

根据国际能源署的最新《世界能源投资》(World Energy Investment)报告,2016年全球石油和天然气行业总支出高达6,490亿美元。这比可再生发电的投资量2,970亿美元高出一倍多,虽然想要实现巴黎协定的目标,就必须让至少四分之三的已知化石燃料储量留在地下。这些数字表明,制度惰性和根深蒂固的行业利益仍是投资流向可再生能源道路上的拦路石。

很多问题可以追溯到双边投资条约和范围更广的贸易契约所规定的投资规则上,如北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)、能源宪章条约(Energy Charter Treaty)和欧盟-加拿大全面经贸协定(CETA)。这些条约是为了阻止外国投资者被征没而制定,因此包括了投资者-国家纠纷解决(ISDS)机制,允许投资者在政策变化影响到业务的情况下,通过国际仲裁法庭向政府索赔。

这让政府寻求限制化石燃料采掘的行动投鼠忌器。ISDS案例的赔偿令人咋舌。2012年,美国投资商向起诉魁北克政府拒绝许可在圣劳伦斯河底进行液压致裂法作业。这家位于特拉华州的能源企业说,根据NAFTA,魁北克政府的禁令是“专断、任性、非法”的,因此索取2.5亿美元损失赔偿

2016年,TransCanada能源公司援引NAFTA起诉美国索赔150亿美元损失,因为奥巴马总统拒绝批准Keystone XL输油管道。(2017年1月,特朗普总统批准了该项目,该公司随之撤诉。)

2017年7月,魁北克在取消了圣劳伦斯湾安蒂科斯蒂岛的油气勘探合同后,同意向相关公司赔偿近5,000万美元。除了此类赔偿之外,化石燃料行业还能源源不断地获得数千亿美元的补贴。

巨额的偿付不仅仅耗尽了公帑;仅仅是存这一威胁,就让政府无法追求进取的气候政策,因为它们担心碳依赖行业在国际仲裁法庭上起诉它们。

幸运的是,这一情况不是一成不变的。许多政府目前正着眼于改革投资机制——不仅作为一个可行项,而且要作为一个必须项。上个月,联合国贸易和发展会议在日内瓦召开了一次高级别会议,旨在制定全面投资机制改革的选项,包括重新谈判和结束约3,000条过时的条约。

政府首先应该修订或退出现有《能源宪章条约》(ETC)。ETC是全世界唯一的专门的能源投资契约。其投资保护条款和缺少气候条款的情况早已不合时宜。自实施以来,ECT被针对东道国的能源企业援引过100多次,其中一些是对国家能源政策,如德国逐步退出核电的战略的挑战。俄罗斯和意大利已经退出了ECT;其他国家也应该这样做,或致力于重新谈判ECT。

此外,各国应该将气候问题作为贸易和投资谈判的核心,比如将化石燃料项目剔出投资条款。这正是法国最近所提出的动议,其生态部长尼古拉·胡洛(Nicolas Hulot)宣布,法国准备对CETA投“气候否决票”。胡洛说,法国不会批准该条约,除非它保证仲裁法庭不干涉气候承诺。新环境条约的投资保护条款也应该剔除化石燃料项目,如法国总统马克龙在9月的联合国大会上所提出的《全球环境公约》(Global Pact for the Environment)。

实现全球投资机制再平衡只是通往零碳经济的第一步。要让资本从重化石燃料项目流出,流向绿色能源项目,各国需要地区、国家和国际层面的新的法律和政策框架。这些协定应该促进和便利零碳投资。本周正在举行的会议和相隔约的巴黎气候峰会这样的大会能够为这些谈判提供起点。

(作者特别鸣谢IISD的Ivetta Gerasimchuk和Martin Dietrich Brauch为本评论所提供的帮助。)

http://prosyn.org/rhzAHr9/zh;

Handpicked to read next

  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now