The biggest cloud hanging over the world economy is the incipient trade war with China launched by US President Donald Trump. But with America’s closest allies rejecting Trump's protectionism, can the US really afford to go it alone?
May 16, 2019 assesses the damage that President Donald Trump's trade policies have inflicted on the US economy.
May 14, 2019 says the recent breakdown in US-China trade talks may reflect a clash over styles as much as substance.
May 14, 2019 calls the Trump administration's clash-of-civilizations approach misguided and self-defeating.
May 3, 2019 warns that any agreement forcing China to maintain a rigid exchange rate would be a recipe for disaster.
Apr 30, 2019 thinks the world should brace itself for an escalating zero-sum conflict between the United States and China.
Apr 26, 2019 says that just when US Republicans and Democrats manage to agree on an issue, they both get it wrong.
Unlike the 2008 global financial crisis, which was mostly a large negative aggregate demand shock, the next recession is likely to be caused by permanent negative supply shocks from the Sino-American trade and technology war. And trying to undo the damage through never-ending monetary and fiscal stimulus will not be an option.
The Communist Party of China would like the mainland Chinese population and the rest of the world to believe that the ongoing, sometimes violent protests in Hong Kong pose a threat of "terrorism." But the truth is that China has only itself to blame for pushing the city's idealistic youth into the streets once again.
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