China maintenance base for trains VCG

Trump et la Chine

CAMBRIDGE –  Alors que le président Donald Trump déstabilise l'ordre économique de l'après-guerre, le monde retient sa respiration. Les commentateurs cherchent les mots pour décrire sa remise en question des normes de gouvernance et de tolérance des démocraties libérales modernes. Confrontés à un président qui semble parfois très mal informé et croit néanmoins que tout ce qu'il dit est exact, les grands médias hésitent à qualifier de mensonges ses déclarations manifestement inexactes.

On pourrait croire que derrière le chaos et le fracas se trouve une logique économique qui pousse le gouvernement de Trump à abandonner la mondialisation de manière apparemment désordonnée. De point de vue, les USA ont fait une grave erreur en permettant la montée en puissance de la Chine, et un jour ou l'autre les Américains vont le regretter. Mais les économistes considèrent plutôt le renoncement des USA à assurer le leadership mondial comme une erreur historique.

Les racines du mouvement d'opposition à la mondialisation aux USA s'étendent bien au-delà des ouvriers américains en difficulté. Certains économistes se sont opposés au partenariat transpacifique (PTP, accord commercial entre 12 pays qui aurait couvert 40% de l'économie mondiale) parce que selon eux il nuirait aux travailleurs américains - ce qui est discutable. En réalité le PTP aurait ouvert le marché japonais bien plus qu'il n'aurait affecté les USA. Son rejet ouvre la porte à la domination chinoise dans toute la région Pacifique.

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