Chinese steel plant worker STR/Getty Images

Il protezionismo non protegge i posti di lavoro da nessuna parte

CAMBRIDGE – Mentre si preoccupano per il futuro dei posti di lavori di qualità, i politici americani ed europei farebbero bene a considerare i problemi ben più grandi che si trovano ad affrontare i paesi asiatici in via di sviluppo – problemi che minacciano di esercitare una forte pressione al ribasso sui salari a livello mondiale. In India, dove il reddito pro capite è pari a circa un decimo di quello statunitense, ogni anno più di dieci milioni di persone lasciano le campagne per riversarsi nelle aree urbane, dove spesso non riescono a trovare lavoro nemmeno come chaiwalas, cioè venditori di tè, figuriamoci come programmatori. La stessa ansia che gli americani e gli europei hanno riguardo al futuro dell’occupazione è di un ordine di grandezza superiore in Asia.      

L’India dovrebbe forse ispirarsi al tradizionale modello industriale lanciato dal Giappone, che tanti altri, compresa la Cina, hanno seguito? E dove può portarla ciò se, nell’arco dei prossimi due decenni, l’automazione è destinata a rendere obsoleta la maggior parte di questi mestieri?

C’è, naturalmente, il settore dei servizi, che nelle economie avanzate dà lavoro all’80% della popolazione, e in cui l’outsourcing indiano continua a occupare il primo posto nella classifica mondiale. Purtroppo, anche lì il futuro è tutt’altro che roseo. I sistemi automatizzati di chiamata hanno già soppiantato una quota notevole dell’attività globale dei call center, e molti lavori di programmazione stanno anch’essi perdendo terreno per la concorrenza dei computer.  

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