Chinese steel plant worker STR/Getty Images

Protektionismus wird nirgends Arbeitsplätze sichern

CAMBRIDGE – Die Politiker in den USA und in Europa sorgen sich derzeit über die Zukunft hochwertiger Arbeitsplätze. Dabei täten sie gut daran, sich die deutlich größeren Probleme anzusehen, vor denen das sich entwickelnde Asien steht – Probleme, die drohen, die Löhne weltweit unter massiven Abwärtsdruck zu setzen. In Indien, wo das Prokopfeinkommen nur rund ein Zehntel des Prokopfeinkommens in den USA beträgt, verlassen jährlich mehr als zehn Millionen Menschen die ländlichen Regionen und strömen in die Ballungsräume, und häufig können sie nicht einmal Arbeit als chaiwalas finden – und als Computerprogrammierer schon gar nicht. Dieselbe Angst, die Amerikaner und Europäer in Bezug auf die Zukunft ihrer Arbeitsplätze empfinden, herrscht in Asien, nur dort in einer noch ganz anderen Größenordnung.

Sollte Indien sich bemühen, dem traditionellen Modell der Produktion für den Export zu folgen, das in Japan entwickelt wurde und dem so viele andere Länder, darunter China, gefolgt sind? Wo würde das hinführen, wenn während der nächsten paar Jahrzehnte die Automatisierung die meisten derartigen Arbeitsplätze obsolet macht?

Es gibt natürlich den Dienstleistungssektor, in dem in den hochentwickelten Ländern 80% der Bevölkerung arbeiten und wo Indiens Outsourcing-Sektor noch immer weltweit führend ist. Nur leider verläuft der Weg voran auch hier alles andere als gradlinig. Automatisierte Anrufsysteme haben bereits einen beträchtlichen Teil des weltweiten Telefoncenter-Geschäfts ersetzt, und viele routinemäßige Programmiertätigkeiten verlieren ebenfalls gegenüber den Computern an Boden.

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