Russia's economic future Alexander Nemenov/Getty Images

俄罗斯的经济弱势握手

发自剑桥——当俄罗斯总统普京在本周的汉堡20国集团首脑会议上与他的美国同行特朗普会面时,他与对方大力握手的底气可不会出于自身的经济实力。可以肯定的是,尽管从三年前至今石价大幅下滑,但俄罗斯已经成功摆脱了严重金融危机。可虽然经济在经历两年的深度衰退之后正在温和反弹,未来的前景似乎不会像领导层五年前上任时一样满怀希望。在摒弃了切实的经济和政治改革之后,普京实现其俄罗斯战略野心的能力也大打折扣

回到2012年,当普京与诺贝尔奖获得者经济学家保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)同台出席在一场莫斯科银行会议时,1998年的俄罗斯经济危机似乎已是陈年往事。油价已经攀升到每桶100美元以上,政府库房充盈,令普京可以自豪地将俄罗斯的政府预算盈余与西方世界的巨额衰退驱动型赤字进行对比。眼看着克鲁格曼跟台下俄罗斯听众讲述西方民主国家在处理全球金融危机方面束手无策时,普京显然是满心欢喜的。

在那场会议的另一个分会场上,后来不得不流亡海外的俄罗斯经济学家谢尔盖·古里耶夫(Sergei Guriev)指出,只要法院等机构依然薄弱,俄罗斯的资源依赖型经济就不会有实现多样化转型的希望,因为太多的关键决策都要靠一个人来拍板。在同一个分会场上发言的笔者也强调,如果缺乏根本性的改革,一旦全球能源价格大幅下跌,就将导致众多深层次问题。

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