Une Bulle immobiliére ?

Partout dans le monde, la presse parle d'une « bulle immobilière » sur le point d'éclater. The Economist a publié de nombreux articles appelant à la prudence avec des titres de ce genre : « Castles in Hot Air » (Châteaux de cartes). « Housing Prices Soar, Fueling Bubble Fears » (Les prix de l'immobilier grimpent, alimentant les craintes d'une bulle) ajoutait le Wall Street Journal . « The Property Bubble Menaces Growth » (La bulle immobilière menace la croissance) prévenait Le Monde . « Homes Bubble May go Toxic » (La bulle immobilière pourrait se révéler dangereuse) ajoutait le Sydney Morning Herald .

Ces craintes sont-elles justifiées ? Comment savoir si le marché de l'immobilier est dans une bulle ?

Le terme « bulle » est souvent utilisé mais rarement précisé. Une bulle se produit quand les anticipations en matière d'augmentations des prix à venir sont exagérées par les particuliers, faisant ainsi monter les prix vers des niveaux insoutenables. Quand cela se produit, nombreux sont ceux qui achètent pour louer, jouant ainsi le rôle d'investisseurs dans l'immobilier, et d'autres achètent pour se loger, jouant eux aussi le rôle d'investisseurs, craignant qu'une attente trop prolongée ne les chasse du marché.

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