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La resilienza sorprendente dell’economia globale

LONDRA – Gli sviluppi politici sconcertanti negli Stati Uniti e nel Regno Unito potrebbero portare alla conclusione che un’economia mondiale già contrastata affronterà maggiori difficoltà a breve. Ma andando avanti nel 2017, in realtà sembra tutto il contrario.

Da quando ero Capo economista presso Goldman Sachs, ho tenuto sotto controllo sei indicatori da tutto il mondo che, presi insieme, forniscono un quadro affidabile di come apparirà l’economia globale nei prossimi sei mesi. Ora, tutti e sei gli indicatori sono più incoraggianti di quanto lo fossero da un po’ di tempo, e solo uno di loro è sceso leggermente dopo un recente picco.

Il primo indicatore sono le richieste settimanali di sussidi alla disoccupazione negli Usa, da cui si può misurare la forza complessiva dell'economia statunitense. Gli economisti sono giustamente addestrati per considerare la disoccupazione come un indicatore ritardato, ma questi dati possono essere utili anche in previsione del prossimo futuro. Le richieste di sussidi degli Stati Uniti sono sempre aggiornate, perché sono prodotte ogni settimana, e prove statistiche suggeriscono che sono un indicatore importante per i prezzi dei titoli degli Stati Uniti. La scorsa settimana, le richieste di sussidi sono rimaste piuttosto basse, come è successo per qualche tempo, il che fa ben sperare per i mercati azionari degli Stati Uniti.

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