Mexico city street food Robin Cerutti/Getty Images

Il paradosso messicano

CAMBRIDGE – Poche economie rappresentano un enorme paradosso come quella messicana. Dopo essere riemerso da una serie di crisi macroeconomiche a metà degli anni Novanta, il Messico ha intrapreso delle riforme coraggiose che avrebbero dovuto indirizzarlo verso una rapida crescita economica. Tali riforme includevano una certa prudenza sul piano macroeconomico, la liberalizzazione delle politiche economiche, l’adesione al NAFTA, l’accordo nordamericano per il libero scambio, investimenti nel settore dell’istruzione e l’attuazione di politiche innovative per combattere la povertà. 

Sotto molti aspetti, queste riforme hanno dato i loro frutti. È stata raggiunta una stabilità macroeconomica, gli investimenti nazionali sono aumentati di due punti percentuali del Pil, e il livello medio di scolarizzazione si è alzato di quasi tre anni. Forse i vantaggi più evidenti si sono avuti sul fronte estero. Le esportazioni sono balzate dal 5% al 30% del Pil, mentre la quota del Pil in relazione agli investimenti diretti esteri in entrata è triplicata.     

Ma dove veramente conta, cioè sul versante della produttività e della crescita economica complessiva, il risultato è stato una sostanziale delusione. Dal 1996 la crescita economica pro capite si è mantenuta mediamente ben al di sotto dell’1,5%, e la produttività totale dei fattori è rimasta ferma o è diminuita.

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