A man walks past BNP Paribas bank Fred Dufour/Getty Images

La Mancata Lezione della Crisi Finanziaria

LONDRA – Dieci anni fa, in questo stesso mese, la banca francese BNP Paribas decideva di limitare l’accesso degli investitori ai soldi che avevano depositato in tre fondi. È stato il primo forte segnale della bufera finanziaria che un anno dopo, avrebbe mandato in tilt l’economia globale. Eppure le massicce distorsioni economiche e finanziarie che sarebbero andate in ebollizione alla fine del 2008 continuando fino all’inizio del 2009 – e che hanno portato il mondo sull’orlo di una devastante depressione pluriennale – hanno preso completamente di sorpresa i responsabili politici delle economie avanzate. Essi chiaramente non avevano prestato sufficiente attenzione alle lezioni delle crisi dei paesi emergenti.

Chiunque abbia vissuto o studiato le crisi finanziarie di un paese in via di sviluppo sarebbe dolorosamente consapevole delle loro caratteristiche distintive. Innanzitutto, come nell’ultimo periodo sosteneva Rüdiger Dornbusch, le crisi finanziarie possono richiedere molto tempo per svilupparsi, ma una volta esplose, tendono a diffondersi rapidamente, in modo ampio, con violenza, e (apparentemente) in modo indiscriminato.

In questo processo di fallimenti a cascata, le condizioni finanziarie complessive passano rapidamente “dall’abbondanza alla fame”. Le credit factory private che sembravano indistruttibili vengono messe in ginocchio, e le banche centrali ed i governi devono affrontare scelte politiche difficili ed intrinsecamente incerte. Inoltre, i politici devono anche tenere conto del rischio di “improvvisi stop” delle attività economiche, che possono devastare occupazione, commercio ed investimenti.

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