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خمسة دروس من الحكم الشعبوي

وارسو ــ يأتي ياروسلاف كاتشينسكي، زعيم بولندا بحكم الأمر الواقع، في المرتبة الثانية بعد دونالد ترامب مباشرة، مجسدا للتهديد الشعبوي الذي يحيط بالنموذج الديمقراطي الغربي. وفيما ننتظر تنصيب ترامب رئيسا للولايات المتحدة في العشرين من يناير/كانون الثاني، يستحق الأمر أن نتأمل في العام الأول من الحكم الشعبوي في بولندا. فقد أتت النتائج مخالفة تماما للتوقعات.

تتلخص الرؤية التقليدية حول ما ينتظر الولايات المتحدة (وربما فرنسا وهولندا) في عام 2017 في حاكم غريب الأطوار يستن سياسات متناقضة يستفيد منها الأثرياء في المقام الأول. ويخسر الفقراء، لأن الشعبويين ليس لديهم أي أمل في استعادة وظائف التصنيع، على الرغم من وعودهم. وتستمر التدفقات الهائلة من المهاجرين واللاجئين، لأن الشعبويين ليس لديهم أي خطة لمعالجة الأسباب الجذرية للمشكلة. وفي النهاية، تنهار الحكومات الشعبوية غير القادرة على ممارسة الحكم الفعّال، ويواجه قادتها الاتهام وسحب الثقة والعزل أو الفشل في الفوز بإعادة الانتخاب.

وقد واجه كاتشينسكي توقعات مماثلة. فقد رأي الليبراليون البولنديون أنه سيعمل لصالح الأثرياء، ويخلق حالة من الفوضى، ويخفق ــ وهو ما حدث بالضبط في الفترة 2005-2007، عندما حَكَم حزب القانون والعدالة الذي ينتمي إليه كاتشينسكي البلاد آخر مرة.

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