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La lógica política del Brexit duro

PARÍS – Pasados poco más de tres meses de la decisión del Reino Unido de abandonar la Unión Europea, el rumbo político del Brexit se está descarrilando. Se ha afianzado una dinámica casi revolucionaria (y muy poco británica) y, como indicara la Primera Ministra Theresa May en su discurso de tipo “Little Englander” (o “Pequeño inglés”) en la conferencia del Partido Conservador el mes pasado, el Reino Unido se encamina a un “Brexit duro”.

Se trata de un resultado que va en contra de lo que piensa la opinión pública del país, que sigue siendo moderada con respecto a romper de lleno con la UE. Según una encuesta de julio de BB/ComRes, un 66% de los encuestados manifestaban que “mantener el acceso al mercado único” era más importante que restringir la libre circulación de las personas. En una encuesta de ICM del mismo mes, sólo un 10% señaló que priorizaría poner fin a la libre circulación por sobre mantener acceso al mercado único, mientras que un 30% veían ambos temas como igual de importantes y un 38% consideraba que la prioridad era mantener el acceso pleno al libre mercado.

Son resultados que sólo sorprenden a quienes se creen la narrativa de que Occidente se enfrenta a una revuelta xenofóbica a gran escala contra las élites. Si bien no hay duda de que en el campo de los partidarios de abandonar la UE (los “Brexiteers”) había gente para la cual lo más importante era poner fin a la libre circulación de las personas, también había quienes creyeron a Boris Johnson, el ex alcalde de Londres y actual ministro de exteriores, cuando prometió (como sigue haciéndolo) que el Reino Unido podía quedarse con el pastel y comérselo.

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