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新经济无序的风险

伦敦—下个月,180多个国家的财政部长和央行官员将齐聚华盛顿,参加国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行峰会。他们面临着一个日益吃紧的全球经济秩序。这一秩序没能带来它有能力实现的包容经济繁荣,正在受到越来越多的质疑和挑战。如果不予以纠正的话,现有秩序导致世界经济失序的风险还会继续增加。

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当前的国际经济秩序由美国及其盟友在二战后引领,其基础是包括IMF和世界银行在内的多边机构。这些机构设立的初衷是为了明确成员国的义务,它们也包含了一系列最佳经济政策实践,即日后著名的“华盛顿共识”。

这一共识植根于一个旨在促进各国间双赢互动的经济范式,它强调贸易自由化、相对不受限制的跨境资本流、自由市场定价以及国内去监管化。所有这些都与铁幕之后的国家和中国在战后时期上半段的做法截然不同。

几十年来,西方领导的国际秩序运转良好,帮助实现了繁荣和相对金融稳定。接着,它遭遇了一系列金融冲击,2008年全球金融危机为其高潮,它触发了一连串经济失灵,让世界几乎跌入灾难性的多年萧条。这是自20世纪30年代大萧条以来最严重的经济倒退。

但这场危机并不是无中生有冒出来挑战健康的经济秩序的。相反,全球秩序的演化一直落后于结构性经济变化,多边治理机构充分认识金融业的发展及其对实体经济的影响消耗了太长时间,为新兴经济体创造足够空间的动作也过于缓慢。

比如,包括投票权在内的治理结构更适合过去的经济现实,但已与今天和未来的经济现实不甚相容。国籍,而不是资质,仍然是任命这些机构领导者的主要原则,最高职位被欧洲和美国公民垄断。

顽固地不肯充改革多边治理所造成的动摇性后果,因为中国难以调和其国内重点和身为世界第二大经济体的全球经济责任而加剧。其他一些国家,特别是经济发达国家,也没能转变国内政策以顾及全球化、自由化和去监管化所导致的经济关系变化。

拜所有这些因素所赐,赢家和输家的平衡变得更加极端和难以管理,不仅经济上是如此,政治和社会上也是如此。太多的人感到被边缘化,被遗忘,被剥夺——对放任这些情况发生的领导人和机构充满了愤怒——国内政策压力也随之日益加剧,导致各国不得不向内转。

这一趋势体现为最近经济秩序的某些标志(如北美自由贸易协定)受到挑战,以及美国从跨太平洋合作伙伴关系中退出、英国放弃欧盟成员国资格等。所有这些都给全球经济体系的未来蒙上了一层阴影。

美国的向内转已经进行了多年,其影响尤其重大,因为这导致世界秩序失去了舵手。其他国家或国家集团都无法接过美国的接力棒,政治学家伊恩·布雷默(Ian Bremmer)所谓的“G-0时代”的出现已是板上钉钉。

面对全球体系核心的衰落,中国的应对之道是加快构建小网络的步伐,包括在传统的西方主导的权力结构之外另起炉灶。其中包括建立亚洲基础设施投资银行、各种双边支付协定的涌现,以及推出“一带一路计划”建设连接中国和西亚、欧洲和非洲的基础设施。

这些动态助长着贸易紧张,也提高了经济分裂的风险。如果这一趋势继续下去,全球经济和金融格局将越来越不稳定,加剧地缘和安全威胁,而与此同时,加强跨境合作才是解决来自非国家行动方和破坏性政权(如朝鲜)的威胁的关键。假以时日,伴随向全球经济无序的转变所产生的风险可能给地缘政治和国家安全造成严重的消极影响。

所有这些都不是新鲜事。但是,年复一年,参加IMF/世界银行年会的政府高官们都无法解决它们。今年预计也不会有什么不同。官员们不会讨论延缓和扭转通往全球经济无序的进程,更有可能因为全球增长的周期性好转而欢欣鼓舞,敦促成员国加大力度克服结构性障碍,构建更快、更持久、更包容的增长。

这一点可以理解,但不够好。即将到来的会议是一次关键的机会,开启关于如何扭转在全球经济中势头渐猛的双输动态的严肃讨论。改革种子撒播的越晚,它们深根发芽的可能性就越小,而出现双输的世界经济经济无序局面的概率就越大。

http://prosyn.org/A6Fwvwz/zh;

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