Zwei Szenarien für die künftige Energieversorgung

Im Jahr 2100 wird die Energieversorgung der Welt völlig anders aussehen als heute. Alternative Energien wie Sonnen- und Windenergie, Wasserkraft und Biokraftstoffe werden einen großen Anteil am Energiemix haben, und auch für die Kernenergie wird noch Platz sein. Die Menschen werden Wege gefunden haben, der Luftverschmutzung und den Treibhausgasemissionen wirksam entgegen zu treten. Aufgrund technischen Fortschritts verbrauchen Gebäude und Fahrzeuge deutlich weniger Energie.

Auch wenn die ferne Zukunft vielversprechend aussieht, so ist es doch entscheidend, wie wir dorthin gelangen. Es gibt zwei denkbare Wege. Lassen Sie mich das erste Szenario „ Scramble“ (rücksichtsloser Wettlauf) nennen. Wie bei einer Offroad-Rallye durch schweres Gelände kommt es dabei zu Spannungen und heftigem Wettbewerb. Aber die ungewollte Konsequenz von „mehr Eile“ wird häufig auch „gegenseitiges Ausbremsen“ sein, und viele werden das Ziel nicht erreichen.

Das alternative Szenario können wir Blueprints (geplante Entwicklung) nennen. Es ähnelt eher dem vorsichtigen Fahren auf einer noch nicht ganz fertig gebauten Straße – einige Fehlstarts sind nicht ausgeschlossen. Ob wir sicher an unserem Ziel ankommen, hängt von der Disziplin der Fahrer und der Erfindungsgabe aller an dem Entwicklungsprozess Beteiligten ab. Für Überraschungen sorgen die technischen Innovationen.

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