nye194_NICHOLAS KAMMAFPGetty Images_trump

Trump’s Effect on US Foreign Policy

Sep 4, 2019 Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

Donald Trump's long-term impact on US foreign policy is uncertain. But the debate about it has revived a longstanding question: Are major historical outcomes the product of human choices or are they largely the result of overwhelming structural factors produced by economic and political forces beyond our control?

CAMBRIDGE – US President Donald Trump’s behavior at the recent G7 meeting in Biarritz was criticized as careless and disruptive by many observers. Others argued that the press and pundits pay too much attention to Trump’s personal antics, tweets, and political games. In the long run, they argue, historians will consider them mere peccadilloes. The larger question is whether the Trump presidency proves to be a major turning point in American foreign policy, or a minor historical blip.

The current debate over Trump revives a longstanding question: Are major historical outcomes the product of human choices or are they largely the result of overwhelming structural factors produced by economic and political forces beyond our control?

Some analysts liken the flow of history to a rushing river, whose course is shaped by the climate, rainfall, geology, and topography, not by whatever the river carries. But even if this were so, human agents are not simply ants clinging to a log swept along by the current. They are more like white-water rafters trying to steer and fend off rocks, occasionally overturning and sometimes succeeding in steering to a desired destination.

We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Already have an account? Log in

Support High-Quality Commentary

US President-elect Joe Biden may have promised a “return to normalcy,” but the truth is that there is no going back. The world is changing in fundamental ways, and the actions the world takes in the next few years will be critical to lay the groundwork for a sustainable, secure, and prosperous future.

For more than 25 years, Project Syndicate has been guided by a simple credo: All people deserve access to a broad range of views by the world’s foremost leaders and thinkers on the issues, events, and forces shaping their lives. At a time of unprecedented uncertainty, that mission is more important than ever – and we remain committed to fulfilling it.

But there is no doubt that we, like so many other media organizations nowadays, are under growing strain. If you are in a position to support us, please subscribe now.

As a subscriber, you will enjoy unlimited access to our On Point suite of long reads and book reviews, Say More contributor interviews, The Year Ahead magazine, the full PS archive, and much more. You will also directly support our mission of delivering the highest-quality commentary on the world's most pressing issues to as wide an audience as possible.

By helping us to build a truly open world of ideas, every PS subscriber makes a real difference. Thank you.

Subscribe Now

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 7 in all 7 Comments on this article

Cary Fraser Sep 8, 2019

Donald Trump is evidence of the increasing desperation that has overtaken American life since the oil crises of the 1970s, the Iranian Revolution, the military defeat in Vietnam, the Soviet-Cuban roles in reshaping the Southern African region and the Horn of Africa, and the Sandinista victory in Nicaragua - which occurred in rapid succession and shattered the illusion of American primacy as a global power.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
G B Sep 8, 2019

Mr Nye, after all is said and done, the fact is US leaders tell lies, break law to attack/invade illegally (Iraq, Libya, Syria etc. which are war crimes) setting fires in these countries plunging them into endless bloodshed and violent conflicts which continue to terrorize the ordinary people with millions (children, women, men, young and old) being raped / murdered / injured / traumatized/ enslaved and/or displaced.

So many years of illegal attacks (of Iraq, Syria, Libya, etc. by US/UK/France leaders) have destroyed the economies of these countries, have destabilized the whole region with these countries wretched and lied in ruins.

Is this rule of law?
Are these Iraqis, Libyans, Syrians, etc. sub-humans?
Are they apes, chimpanzees, monkeys to be hunted/killed?
Does US live up to the values?

The violent chaos and damages from these illegal attacks/invasions are extremely devastating to say the least.

Population-based studies produce estimates of the number of Iraq War casualties ranging from 151,000 violent deaths as of June 2006 (per the Iraq Family Health Survey) to over a million (per the 2007 Opinion Research Business (ORB) survey).
Other survey-based studies covering different time-spans find 461,000 total deaths (over 60% of them violent) as of June 2011 (per PLOS Medicine 2013), and 655,000 total deaths (over 90% of them violent) as of June 2006 (per the 2006 Lancet study).
Body counts counted at least 110,600 violent deaths as of April 2009 (Associated Press).
The Iraq Body Count project documents 183,348 - 205,908 violent civilian deaths through April 2019.

Syria war (caused by US-led illegal regime-change sinister plot) cost 500,000 lives with millions more being displaced/ traumatized.

In Libya (another sinister plot by UK/France/US), over 4,000 people have died from the fighting with extremist groups proliferating, and nearly a third of the country's population has fled to Tunisia as refugees.

The U.S., UK, France must accept at least a million refugees in each of these 3 countries since they have created all these refugees in the first place.

And the endless bloodshed continues in these countries as a deadly consequence of US's illegal attacks/actions.

Mr Nye, if you have any credibility, if you have your moral compass, please don't look the other way, do your part (even just a little part) to get these US/UK/France leaders (who are responsible for these illegal attacks of Iraq, Libya, Syria etc) arrested/charged/jailed for the war crimes they committed as they have a lot of blood on their hands.

Al-Qaeda was born when US helped these jihadists (obviously believing they were moderates) to fight Soviet in Afghanistan decades ago.

Now IS (which is even more radicalized/extreme than Al-Qaeda) is the new product of the US (UK, France) illegal invasions/attacks of Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc.

The West has created these terrorists (Al-Qaeda, IS, etc.) when they helped jihadists to fight Soviet in Afghanistan, invaded/attacked Iraq (Libya, Syria, etc) illegally pushing these countries into wars convulsing in killing fields, radicalizing more jihadists and creating millions of refugees fleeing their own countries-courtesy of the U.S. (UK, France).
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Joseph Zorzin Sep 5, 2019

I find it amazing how coastal elites hate Trump while so many Americans like him. Perhaps the elites should talk to some Trump supporters to find out why they like him, though of course, those "deplorables" are so beneath the elites that they won't bother.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Basil McDonnell Sep 5, 2019

Trump's rule is entirely personal, and becoming more personal all the time. Far from representing the consensus of a ruling elite, he represents no one at all, other than himself, with ideas that are not just outside the mainstream of American thought- he pursues principles that are quite rightly regarded as little short of insane. He can't even find staff to support his ludicrous notions- to the point where he's sidelined everyone who has ever worked with him who had a pulse, and even John Bolton, the insider's insider, is shunted aside as Trump bulls ahead, the mad king.

Trumpism doesn't exist beyond Trump, and the second he's out of office, there will be a spectacular snap-back, as Trump's affection for dictators, allegiance to Russia, his tariff wars, his offensive behavior toward allies, his remarkable fiscal irresponsibility, and his pattern of rule by ignorance instead of expertise are all discarded onto the trash heap of history on the first day of a new administration, if not before.
- lt lee Sep 5, 2019
  
  May be hate is to strong a word. Have a good laugh? Certainly.
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEpwkaJQh1k
  
  Concerning Nye's question on the when and how human choices would be transformed into structural factors, one has to look at how the presses react to human choices.
  
  In the above link, MSNBC journalist found Trumpian foreign policy funny. She certainly had fun doing the program. Would she later change her view on US policy with dejection and hopelessness?
  
  On the other hand, some presses such as Fox are more accepting. Would such acceptance lower the standard of foreign policy?
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
j. von Hettlingen Sep 4, 2019

Joseph S. Nye, Jr. raises an interesting, but “longstanding” question in light of Trump’s disastrous presidency: “Are major historical outcomes the product of human choices or are they largely the result of overwhelming structural factors produced by economic and political forces beyond our control?” No doubt Trump’s personality and his passion for antics and brinkmanship are having a “long-term impact” on US foreign policy. Only history can tell whether his presidency amounts to “a major turning point” or remains just a “minor historical blip.”
The author, like other analysts, adopt the Hegelian analogy that the flow of history was like a “rushing” river. whose course is “shaped by the climate, rainfall, geology, and topography, not by whatever the river carries. But even if this were so, human agents are not simply ants clinging to a log swept along by the current. They are more like white-water rafters trying to steer and fend off rocks, occasionally overturning and sometimes succeeding in steering to a desired destination.”
Taking a dip in history and “understanding leaders’ choices and failures in American foreign policy over the past century” might help us “cope with the questions we face today about the Trump presidency.” The author says, “leaders in every age think they are dealing with unique forces of change, but human nature remains. Choices can matter; acts of omission can be as consequential as acts of commission.” Revisiting the 1930s, it is difficult for posterity to know whether certain “major” choices were “determined by the situation or the person.”
That Woodrow Wilson, more than any other president before him, was responsible for increasing American involvement in foreign affairs, had to do with World War One. Perhaps Theodore Roosevelt might have done the same. Wilson’s “idealistic vision led to the creation of the League of Nations,” but his “moralistic tone of his justification, and…. in his stubborn insistence on all or nothing for involvement” in the League, might explain why the US returned to isolationism in the 1930s.”
Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR) is the longest serving president in US history. His 12 years in office spanned two of the 20th Century’s greatest disasters – the Great Depression and the Second World War. He did not bring the US into the war until the Pearl Harbour attack in 1941. Again this could have happened under a “conservative isolationist.” FDR realised the threat posed by Hitler, and “his preparations” to fight Nazi Germany were "crucial" for American participation in the war in Europe.
The author says the Cold War might have taken a different course “had Henry Wallace (whom FDR ditched as vice president in 1944), instead of Harry Truman, become president.” Meanwhile, an “isolationist Robert Taft or an assertive Douglas MacArthur presidency might have disrupted the relatively smooth consolidation of Truman’s containment strategy, over which the latter’s successor, Dwight D. Eisenhower, presided.”
The presidencies of John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Ronald Reagan, George HW Bush could have been different under other circumstances. The US might not have waged wars in Iraq ans Afghanistan had Al Gore instead of George W. Bush been president.
The truth is, “leaders and their skills matter. In a sense, this is bad news, because it means that Trump’s behavior cannot be easily dismissed.” He has destroyed much of what his predecessors had achieved since World War II. Instead of using both hard and soft power, Trump opts for a wrecking-ball approach. He lacks “Machiavellian and organizational skills…..emotional intelligence, which produces the skills of self-awareness and self-control, and contextual intelligence, which enables leaders to understand an evolving environment, capitalize on trends, and apply their other skills accordingly. Emotional and contextual intelligence are not Trump’s strong suit.”
The world is watching closely whether he wins another term in 2020. If he does, his successor will have an even more daunting task to repair the damage he inflicts on the US and the wider world, and regain trust in its institutions. Besides the world has also changed outside America. “Trump’s role in history may depend on whether he is re-elected. Karl Marx once “observed, we make history, but not under conditions of our own choosing.”
As Trump is on the wrong side of history, he can one day be cruelly forgotten, like Millard Fillmore. The 13th president was so obscure that barely 8% of college students in the US are even aware of who he was. Historians say there is so much about his character and presidency that seem uncannily familiar and remind the world of Trump’s.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

https://prosyn.org/TWqbgho

Cookies and Privacy

Trump’s Effect on US Foreign Policy

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Support High-Quality Commentary

New Comment

Email this piece to a friend

Contact us

Log in/Register

Cookies and Privacy

Trump’s Effect on US Foreign Policy

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Support High-Quality Commentary

Edit Newsletter Preferences

Set up Notification