Dollar trifft auf Ölteppich

CAMBRIDGE – Der rasche Anstieg des Ölpreises und die abrupte Abwertung des Dollars sind zwei der beachtenswertesten Entwicklungen im letzen Jahr. Der Ölpreis ist in den letzten 12 Monaten um 85 % gestiegen, von $ 65 pro Barrel auf $ 120. Im selben Zeitraum ist der Dollar relativ zum Euro um 15 % und gegenüber dem Yen um 12 % gefallen. Viele Beobachter haben das Gefühl, dass die Kombination aus fallendem Dollar und steigenden Ölpreisen mehr als ein Zufall ist.

Doch welche Verbindung besteht zwischen den beiden? Wäre der Ölpreis weniger stark gestiegen, wenn Öl in Euro anstatt in Dollar notiert würde? Hat der Sturzflug des Dollars den Anstieg des Ölpreises verursacht? Und inwiefern hat der Anstieg des Ölpreises die Bewegung des Dollars beeinflusst?

Da der Ölmarkt global ist und der Ölpreis an verschiedenen Orten praktisch identisch, spiegelt der Preis sowohl den weltweiten Ölbedarf insgesamt als auch das Gesamtangebot aller Ölförderländer wider. Öl wird vor allem als Kraftstoff für den Transport gebraucht, geringere Mengen werden zum Heizen, zur Energiegewinnung und als Ausgangsstoff in der petrochemischen Industrie z. B. für Plastik verwendet. Der zunehmende Ölbedarf aller Länder, insbesondere jedoch der schnell wachsenden aufstrebenden Wirtschaftsnationen wie China und Indien ist und bleibt daher ein wichtiger Faktor, der den globalen Preis in die Höhe treibt. 

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