Until recently, any suggestion of fiscal prudence was quickly dismissed as “austerity” by economists on the left. But with higher interest rates fast becoming the new normal, the idea that any economic problem can be solved with more government borrowing has become untenable.
CAMBRIDGE – For over a decade, numerous economists – primarily but not exclusively on the left – have argued that the potential benefits of using debt to finance government spending far outweigh any associated costs. The notion that advanced economies could suffer from debt overhang was widely dismissed, and dissenting voices were often ridiculed. Even the International Monetary Fund, traditionally a stalwart advocate of fiscal prudence, began to support high levels of debt-financed stimulus.
The tide has turned over the past two years, as this type of magical thinking collided with the harsh realities of high inflation and the return to normal long-term real interest rates. A recent reassessment by three senior IMF economists underscores this remarkable shift. The authors project that the advanced economies’ average debt-to-income ratio will rise to 120% of GDP by 2028, owing to their declining long-term growth prospects. They also note that with elevated borrowing costs becoming the “new normal,” developed countries must “gradually and credibly rebuild fiscal buffers and ensure the sustainability of their sovereign debt.”
This balanced and measured assessment is far from alarmist. Yet, not too long ago, any suggestion of fiscal prudence was quickly dismissed as “austerity” by many on the left. For example, Adam Tooze’s 2018 book on the 2008-09 global financial crisis and its consequences uses the word 102 times.
CAMBRIDGE – For over a decade, numerous economists – primarily but not exclusively on the left – have argued that the potential benefits of using debt to finance government spending far outweigh any associated costs. The notion that advanced economies could suffer from debt overhang was widely dismissed, and dissenting voices were often ridiculed. Even the International Monetary Fund, traditionally a stalwart advocate of fiscal prudence, began to support high levels of debt-financed stimulus.
The tide has turned over the past two years, as this type of magical thinking collided with the harsh realities of high inflation and the return to normal long-term real interest rates. A recent reassessment by three senior IMF economists underscores this remarkable shift. The authors project that the advanced economies’ average debt-to-income ratio will rise to 120% of GDP by 2028, owing to their declining long-term growth prospects. They also note that with elevated borrowing costs becoming the “new normal,” developed countries must “gradually and credibly rebuild fiscal buffers and ensure the sustainability of their sovereign debt.”
This balanced and measured assessment is far from alarmist. Yet, not too long ago, any suggestion of fiscal prudence was quickly dismissed as “austerity” by many on the left. For example, Adam Tooze’s 2018 book on the 2008-09 global financial crisis and its consequences uses the word 102 times.