slow growth Mark Metcalfe/Stringer

Come sfuggire alla nuova normalità di una crescita debole

MILANO – Non c’è dubbio che la ripresa dalla recessione globale provocata dalla crisi finanziaria del 2008 sia stata insolitamente lunga e anemica. Alcuni si aspettano ancora un aumento della crescita, ma a otto anni dalla crisi ciò che si sta verificando nel contesto dell’economia globale inizia a non sembrare più una ripresa lenta, bensì un nuovo equilibrio caratterizzato da una crescita bassa. Ma perchè si sta verificando questo, e cosa possiamo fare?

Una possibile spiegazione per questa “nuova normalità” che ha attirato molta attenzione è la riduzione della crescita di produttività. Ma nonostante la presenza di dati e analisi significative, è stato difficile individuare il ruolo della produttività nell’attuale malessere che in effetti non sembra essere così fondamentale come molti credono.

Ovviamente, il rallentamento della crescita della produttività non è positivo per la prestazione economica di lungo termine e potrebbe essere tra le cause che frenano gli Stati Uniti mentre si avvicinano alla “piena” occupazione. Ma in gran parte del resto del mondo sono altri i fattori che sembrano avere maggiore importanza (ovvero una domanda aggregata inadeguata e dei divari di produzione significativi radicati in un contesto di capacità in eccesso e di beni sottoutilizzati tra cui anche le persone).

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