With the Taliban on the run, sighs of relief can be heard as far away as Indonesia. Protests against the US-led coalition's bombing campaign had roiled Indonesia for weeks, increasing the country's already perilous instability. Now that the war in Afghanistan may wind down soon, there is a fear that President Megawati Sukarnoputri will do little to change her do-nothing ways.
These protests came as Mrs Megawati's first 100 days in office ended. They were but another sign of the scant political honeymoon she enjoyed. Grumbling about her ``slow motion'' style of government can be heard everywhere; applause for her few accomplishments - such as weathering the Islamic storm - is slight.
Public expectations about Mrs Megawati were modest from the start. In her report to the annual session of the People's Consultative Assembly, delivered on November 1, Megawati admitted that her government had achieved little. The Assembly sought to fill this policy vacuum by outlining steps that her government must take to jump-start the economy.
Although the Assembly remains dubious about her, Mrs Megawati was heartened when Assembly Chairman Amien Rais foreswore any challenge to her presidency for the remainder of her term, which expires in 2004. So Megawati need not worry about being ejected from office as her predecessor Abdurrahman Wahid was, just a few months ago.
But Amien Rais' statement is as much self-serving as it is in the interest of political stability. He is the only viable rival candidate for President Megawati's job, and would be the man to step into the presidential palace should she be removed. No politician with any common sense (which Mr Rais has in abundance) would seek to unseat Megawati at this moment, for the challenges she faces are daunting and the chances of success small.
Many people suspect that Megawati's inactivity results from her recognition of the almost intransigent nature of the challenges facing Indonesia. Hers is a kind of ``self-healing'' administration in which events are left to run their course in the hope that they won't get out of hand. So Amien Rais' assurance that Megawati will remain president until 2004 will not have injected a greater urgency into her presidency. Her sense of security (and hence her indolence) is also increased because her political opponents are in complete disarray.
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But government by sleepwalking is risky in a country's whose territorial integrity seems to be coming apart at the seams. The unified Indonesia of the past 40 years or so is finished. A new regional autonomy law will provide greater freedoms for regions and local communities to express themselves. Right now, this decentralization process is manageable. It may not remain so without a firm policy hand at the center.
If the central government refrains from re-imposing its power in the regions, either administratively or militarily, they are more likely to remain within the Republic. Granting special autonomy to the two most strife-ridden provinces - Aceh and Papua (Irian Jaya) - may also reduce tension between national and local military commanders. However, the deep wounds of the past few years of violence will not heal unless serious efforts are made by the government in Jakarta to bring human rights abusers to justice. Megawati promised to pursue human rights violators, but few actions have been taken to enforce this promise.
Such inaction cannot last if national unity is to be maintained. A credible system to manage Indonesia's new decentralized system is needed. Regions must be prevented from promulgating regulations that violate national laws or impose negative effects on other regions, as has happened with the creation by some regions of internal trade barriers. Because of the government's inactivity, such barriers are rising across the Indonesian archipelago.
Regional autonomy, moreover, has not pacified ethnic tensions. Violent conflicts among Indonesia's myriad ethnic and religious groups continue. Radical Muslim groups have declared holy war, ``jihad,'' which has complicated and aggravated conflicts in the Moluccan islands.
Fundamentalist Islamic groups, indeed, raised the most consistent challenge to Megawati's ``secular'' government even before the attacks on America. They are not yet a serious threat to Megawati, only because they are not backed by Indonesia's powerful Islamic political parties.
Mrs Megawati's challenge is to keep these Islamic parties firmly within Indonesia's conventional political framework. In the first month of the war on terrorism, some Islamic political parties were drawn into anti-American protests and even Vice President Hamzah Haz (chairman of one of Indonesia's strongest Islamic parties) was tempted to ride this tiger for a time. During Megawati's trip to America to support President Bush's policy, indeed, the government in Jakarta was almost incapacitated by these small, noisy and radical Islamic groups.
On her return, Megawati restored her credibility by ordering the security services to act against these groups. This restored order. Credit for the absence of a truly serious Islamic challenge, however, should perhaps be given to Indonesia's moderate and mainstream Muslim leaders and groups, such as Nahdatul Ulama and Muhammadyah, who avoided incendiary words and deeds.
Their responsible behavior demonstrates the growing importance of Indonesia's civil society. Because Indonesia's government will likely be weak for years to come, Mrs Megawati should forge alliances with the many civil society groups that are emerging in Indonesia and which support a democratic regime. Such activity by the President will do more to root Indonesia's democracy than any other action Megawati might take.
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With US think tanks having already drawn up plans for instituting an authoritarian government under a second Donald Trump administration, the stakes in the year's presidential election are difficult to overstate. Around the world, "strongmen" are turning democratic institutions on themselves and learning from each other.
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With the Taliban on the run, sighs of relief can be heard as far away as Indonesia. Protests against the US-led coalition's bombing campaign had roiled Indonesia for weeks, increasing the country's already perilous instability. Now that the war in Afghanistan may wind down soon, there is a fear that President Megawati Sukarnoputri will do little to change her do-nothing ways.
These protests came as Mrs Megawati's first 100 days in office ended. They were but another sign of the scant political honeymoon she enjoyed. Grumbling about her ``slow motion'' style of government can be heard everywhere; applause for her few accomplishments - such as weathering the Islamic storm - is slight.
Public expectations about Mrs Megawati were modest from the start. In her report to the annual session of the People's Consultative Assembly, delivered on November 1, Megawati admitted that her government had achieved little. The Assembly sought to fill this policy vacuum by outlining steps that her government must take to jump-start the economy.
Although the Assembly remains dubious about her, Mrs Megawati was heartened when Assembly Chairman Amien Rais foreswore any challenge to her presidency for the remainder of her term, which expires in 2004. So Megawati need not worry about being ejected from office as her predecessor Abdurrahman Wahid was, just a few months ago.
But Amien Rais' statement is as much self-serving as it is in the interest of political stability. He is the only viable rival candidate for President Megawati's job, and would be the man to step into the presidential palace should she be removed. No politician with any common sense (which Mr Rais has in abundance) would seek to unseat Megawati at this moment, for the challenges she faces are daunting and the chances of success small.
Many people suspect that Megawati's inactivity results from her recognition of the almost intransigent nature of the challenges facing Indonesia. Hers is a kind of ``self-healing'' administration in which events are left to run their course in the hope that they won't get out of hand. So Amien Rais' assurance that Megawati will remain president until 2004 will not have injected a greater urgency into her presidency. Her sense of security (and hence her indolence) is also increased because her political opponents are in complete disarray.
For just $1, you can unlock a three-month trial subscription to PS Digital.
With your trial Digital subscription, you would enjoy full access to our suite of subscriber-exclusive content, the full PS archive, and all of the newest insights from PS contributors on economics, politics, and more.
START YOUR TRIAL NOW
But government by sleepwalking is risky in a country's whose territorial integrity seems to be coming apart at the seams. The unified Indonesia of the past 40 years or so is finished. A new regional autonomy law will provide greater freedoms for regions and local communities to express themselves. Right now, this decentralization process is manageable. It may not remain so without a firm policy hand at the center.
If the central government refrains from re-imposing its power in the regions, either administratively or militarily, they are more likely to remain within the Republic. Granting special autonomy to the two most strife-ridden provinces - Aceh and Papua (Irian Jaya) - may also reduce tension between national and local military commanders. However, the deep wounds of the past few years of violence will not heal unless serious efforts are made by the government in Jakarta to bring human rights abusers to justice. Megawati promised to pursue human rights violators, but few actions have been taken to enforce this promise.
Such inaction cannot last if national unity is to be maintained. A credible system to manage Indonesia's new decentralized system is needed. Regions must be prevented from promulgating regulations that violate national laws or impose negative effects on other regions, as has happened with the creation by some regions of internal trade barriers. Because of the government's inactivity, such barriers are rising across the Indonesian archipelago.
Regional autonomy, moreover, has not pacified ethnic tensions. Violent conflicts among Indonesia's myriad ethnic and religious groups continue. Radical Muslim groups have declared holy war, ``jihad,'' which has complicated and aggravated conflicts in the Moluccan islands.
Fundamentalist Islamic groups, indeed, raised the most consistent challenge to Megawati's ``secular'' government even before the attacks on America. They are not yet a serious threat to Megawati, only because they are not backed by Indonesia's powerful Islamic political parties.
Mrs Megawati's challenge is to keep these Islamic parties firmly within Indonesia's conventional political framework. In the first month of the war on terrorism, some Islamic political parties were drawn into anti-American protests and even Vice President Hamzah Haz (chairman of one of Indonesia's strongest Islamic parties) was tempted to ride this tiger for a time. During Megawati's trip to America to support President Bush's policy, indeed, the government in Jakarta was almost incapacitated by these small, noisy and radical Islamic groups.
On her return, Megawati restored her credibility by ordering the security services to act against these groups. This restored order. Credit for the absence of a truly serious Islamic challenge, however, should perhaps be given to Indonesia's moderate and mainstream Muslim leaders and groups, such as Nahdatul Ulama and Muhammadyah, who avoided incendiary words and deeds.
Their responsible behavior demonstrates the growing importance of Indonesia's civil society. Because Indonesia's government will likely be weak for years to come, Mrs Megawati should forge alliances with the many civil society groups that are emerging in Indonesia and which support a democratic regime. Such activity by the President will do more to root Indonesia's democracy than any other action Megawati might take.