US Federal Reserve Karen Bleier / Getty Images

Große Gefahr an der unteren Grenze

CAMBRIDGE – Momentan sind die Märkte völlig darauf fixiert, wie stark die US Federal Reserve die Zinsen in den nächsten zwölf Monaten erhöhen wird. Dies ist auf gefährliche Weise kurzsichtig: Viel mehr Sorgen sollten sie sich darüber machen, wie stark die Fed die Zinsen in der nächsten tiefen Rezession senken kann. Angesichts dessen, dass sie schon Mühe haben könnte, ihren Basiszinssatz im nächsten Jahr auf 2% zu erhöhen, wird es im Fall einer Rezession kaum Potenzial nach unten geben.

Die Fed-Vorsitzende Janet Yellen versuchte Ende August, mit einer Rede die Märkte zu beruhigen, indem sie andeutete, eine Kombination massiver Anleihenkäufe durch die Regierung und einer „vorausschauenden Zielsetzung“ bei den Zinssätzen könnte denselben Stimulus gewährleisten wie eine Senkung der Übernachtrate auf minus 6%, wenn negative Zinsen möglich wären. Damit mag sie recht haben, aber die meisten Ökonomen bezweifeln, dass die unkonventionellen Maßnahmen der Fed so effektiv sind.

Es gibt andere Ideen, die ausprobiert werden könnten. Beispielsweise könnte sich die Fed der jüngsten Strategie der Bank von Japan anschließen und statt der sehr kurzfristigen Zinsen, die üblicherweise im Blickfeld sind, die Zinssätze zehnjähriger Anleihen ins Visier zu nehmen. Die Idee ist, dass auch bei Kurzfristzinsen von Null die Langfristzinsen immer noch positiv sind. Der Zinssatz der US-Staatsanleihen mit zehnjähriger Laufzeit lag Ende Oktober bei etwa 1,8%.

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