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拉加德的优势是欧洲的机会

Sep 26, 2019 Mohamed A. El-Erian

伦敦—名医是治愈每况愈下的老病号的保证。这位老病号的治疗效果日减，副作用日增。有更好的方法，但新医生的医院没有。而在有这种疗法的医院，医生又不太关注这个病号。

新医生便是克里斯汀·拉加德（Christine Lagarde），广受尊敬的国际货币基金组织（IMF）前总裁，她即将接替马里奥·德拉吉（Mario Draghi）出任欧洲中央银行行长。她的挑战是要避免欧元区落入第二个增长低迷、有欠包容的十年。病号在她的主诊下结果如何——以及她能否让重要的欧元区政府提供必要的治疗——不但将决定她留下什么，也决定了德拉吉将留下什么遗产。

如今，欧洲经济正在丧失动力这一点已经毋庸置疑。早先过于乐观的增长持续改善诊断最终败给了惨淡的现实，结构和周期的双重阻力破坏了经济活动。早先的共识——2019年增长率约为2%——现在变成了1%；而最终而可能比1%还要低。

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

Writing for PS since 2010
139 Commentaries

Mohamed A. El-Erian, President of Queens’ College, University of Cambridge, is a former chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers four years running. He is the author of two New York Times bestsellers, including most recently The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.

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Henk Crop Sep 28, 2019

Between 2009-2017 the EU economy of the Eurozone decreased by 2,4 %.
Over the same period the US economy increased by 34 %, the Chinese by 139 %.
The ECB has built a debt of Euro 2600,- billion, at a point in time that a slowdown in the World economy is expected.
I do not even mention the relentless attempts by Macron and Juncker to turn the Eurozone into a transfer Union, even at expense of pensioners in the North.
My suggestion would be that mrs. Lagarde takes some time to answer the question how a group of 19 very diverse economies could be managed and best be supported by a common currency.
Some issues that require attention:
- the Eurozone might function better if it would financially be turned into one bloc. However the majority of the members do not want that.
- the Eurozone has not solved the difference in competitiveness and culture between the North and South that existed for many decades. A transfer Union would thus become a plunder Union.
- the Southern as well the East European members need support, probably over long period of time. But this should be dealt with seperatly, not through monetary means. The question should be raised who will remain in the Eurozone.
- the Brexit will be harmful also to the EU and should be dealt with pragmatically and fairly.
- there is no concensus on where the EU should head for. The Juncker ambition for the superstate has died.
However the French, in particular Macron, has the answer. That is basically to transform the EU/ Eurozone into a French empire, paid for by the North.
All proposals by Macron are directed to install centralized Government, an EU Army, to weaken Germany, to expand to their colonies.
It may be great when someone in the EU will take a leading role.
However if the EU is to succeed it requires respect for other, smaller, members.
Given the complexity of the EU it requires a confederation, not a federation.
France is unqualified to play, uninvitedly, a leading role in the EU.
They are exceptionally self centered, They only know their centralized model, On the Global Competitive list, they rank 17 th (Germany 3rd), They do not speak the international business language: english, They are too much guided by their history instead of the future. France is, under Macron, becoming a threat to the EU.
- Michael James Sep 30, 2019
  
  Way to get almost every significant issue 180 degrees wrong.
  It was the French who were the real force behind forming the EU post-war.
  The Germans control the Euro and the ECB and so no accident that the Euro to Deutschmark conversion rate was outrageously in favour of the Germans which helps them both internationally (in trade competitiveness) and within the EU (their biggest trade partners).
  As to 'robbing northern pensioners', those pensioners got rich at the expense of the rest of Europe, particularly the south where German banks made stupidly risky loans (in Euros) that they (trifecta of ECB, IMF and German banks) then forced Greek, Spanish and Irish governments* to subsume what was private debt into public/sovereign debt.
  And with these practices is it any surprise the biggest recent bank insolvency is Deutschebank! Or that the other big industrial fraud and scandal du jour is dieselgate, a conspiracy by the big German automakers.
  
  As to the French and English fluency, funny isn't it that it is Macron who speaks good English while Merkel doesn't (though she does speak good Russian); and Lagarde, who takes over the ECB, is French and speaks perfect English (better than most Anglos). But, she probably needs German because Merkel is the biggest impediment to progress in the EU, with her austerity mindset and German shopkeeper mentality (despite a PhD in quantum chemistry!).
  Oh, and have a look at who is in recession at the moment: Germany and UK, not France.
  ..................
  *They tried to but failed to force the Icelandic government to do the same, ie. assume the debts to european banks. (The biggest lender in this case was British banks and they ended up being rescued by the British government, but really these banks who make such loans should be allowed to fail.) As a result Iceland was the first to bounce back after the GFC and is a lesson on how bank lending/debt should be treated: as the risk of the bankers and their shareholders not any government.
  - Henk Crop Sep 30, 2019
    
    Michael. It was great that the single market was developed. It is still the most important asset of the EU. Things went wrong when the Euro was introduced, which was hurredly pushed by France.
    It was recklessly introduced and design flaws were neglected.
    The Euro tied the Eurozone economies much stronger together than the members were prepared or equiped for. This reckless approach led to the troubles with the banks. It also resulted in a very costly Eurocrises.
    That the Euro is too weak for the Germans and too strong for the Italians etc. is the consequence of having a common currency with dissimilar economies.
    That is a structural matter and I do not see how ECB measures can resolve that.
    I think we need an Euro that supports the Market fairly and creates no unintended winners or loosers.
    We also do not need an Euro that is used to achieve all kinds of hidden political goals. One such a goal was to use the Euro to force unity in the EU, but it has caused diversion instead.
    (recommended reading A. Mody, The Eurotragedy; J.E. Stiglitz, The Euro)
    - Michael James Oct 1, 2019
      
      You have sidestepped the fact that Germany insisted on controlling the whole Euro-EZ-ECB exercise. They had a whole clutch of non-negotiable points to which France inadvisedly ceded. One can only suspect the result was quite foreseen and deliberate, and France indeed made errors (it was under the rather aimless rule of Chirac at the time, and a cohabitation government). Their obsession with schwarze-null budgets and excessive trade surplus is at Europe's cost, which of course ultimately will also be at German cost. Economists today (literally in today's newspapers) are urging them to spend--on infrastructure where it won't even affect their precious schwarze-null--but no one (including me) is convinced the stubborn and narrow-minded Merkel and her party will do the right thing.
      
      You cite Stiglitz but IIRC his (semi-serious) proposal to cure the Euro was to eject Germany from it! It's Germany that causes the worst imbalances. His other suggestion was a complicated system of parallel currency instruments that tries to overcome the (German) imbalance. FWIW, I also blame the Brits and their Brexit mentality; if they had been more prepared to play a constructive role in Europe they could have moderated or modified the Euro system but as usual they stood on the sidelines and jeered.
      
      I don't know if Lagarde can overcome these deep structural issues but at least with her at ECB and Macron in France, there is more likelihood. What is then needed is for Merkel to retire; alas her replacement doesn't seem any better and possibly is worse. And the UK is MIA.
      - Henk Crop Oct 2, 2019
        
        Michael. Germany did not want to trade their Deutschmark for the Euro. However they were blackmailed by Mitterand. No surprise they made some conditions.
        You are wrong by blaming Merkel for austerity / shopkeeper mentality. That is how Germans, including the Dutch, the Fins and others think. It says: do not spent more than you can afford. It served them well. In the days before the Euro, it was then that France, Italy, Belgium etc. had to regularly depreciate their currency. Of course a Goverment can temporarely overspent. The ECB already did that.
        The problem is that France and Italy failed to restructure their economy, a painful process. But Germany, the Dutch ( and the UK ) did that.
        The Eurozone is just too complex to manage, with all these uncomparable members. The Euro is a little bit convenient, but that does not outweigh the damage it does. That convenience has decreased by the increase of electronic payments.
        I think Macron is on the wrong track and I only hope that Lagarde does not follow him.
        ( see also article in PS by Macron, ca. half a year ago).
        
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Per Kurowski Sep 27, 2019

ECB’s biggest challenge is to help defuse the bomb made off 0% risk weights assigned to all Eurozone sovereigns’ debts, even though none of these can print the euros in which these are denominated.
If it explodes, it’ll take the euro down and sadly perhaps EU too.
http://teawithft.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-still-ticking-0-risk-weight.html
- Henk Crop Oct 2, 2019
  
  Per. The Euro and the Common Market, the EEC, are two seperate things.
  The EEC has created added value and has become a success.
  The Eurozone has unclear/limited added value and has become too complex to manage.
  The Common Market can survive without the Euro, as it has demonstrated for so many years.
  - Per Kurowski Oct 2, 2019
    
    I know but the economic stress that a collapse of the euro would bring, could unfortunately endanger EU in other ways.
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拉加德的优势是欧洲的机会

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