Anti-USA protest in Iran Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

特朗普在助伊朗激进派一臂之力

斯坦福—美国和伊朗对于如何进行核对话和处理其他双边关系问题很少有一致的时候。但两个派别——伊朗强硬派和现任美国政府中的鹰派——之间的的协同和相似性反常地高,并且影响深远。事实上,特朗普的新伊朗战略让德黑兰的激进派欢呼雀跃,美国总统成了他们寻求政治主宰地位的意外帮手。

The Year Ahead 2018

The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

Order now

多年来,伊朗的“保守激进派”认为与美国进行谈判和和解是愚蠢而徒劳的。保守激进派在信仰和哲学问题上极端保守,而在暴力问题上又非常激进。这些强硬派认为,美国唯一的兴趣点在于颠覆伊朗政权和打击域内伊斯兰教。

这一观点让伊朗与俄罗斯和中国立场更加接近。但由于近几年中令人窒息的制裁让伊朗经济濒临崩溃,伊朗保守派也被迫怀着良好的意愿与国际社会进行谈判。

即使没有制裁,伊朗经济也会遭到严重制约。腐败和管理不善,加上结构性和外部挑战——如油价下跌、水短缺和老龄化的失业人口——让经济增长十分萎靡。中国和俄罗斯也加入到最新的制裁中,这一事实让激进派的立场更加站不住脚。

但如果说伊朗强硬派因为此前的谈判而被压得抬不起头的话,那么昨天他们终于扬眉吐气了。特朗普挑战2015年核协议——正式名称是全面联合行动计划,简称JCPOA——的举动让他们赢得了天上掉下来的胜利。尽管最有效的制裁已经取消,并且不可能重新实施,但伊朗保守派仍然赢得了能够用来打击国内反对者的政治“子弹”。

在伊朗国内,温和力量——包括改革派、异见分子和公民社会活动家等——所组成的强大联盟长期以来一直要求采取积极参与的对外政策。这些力量担心俄罗斯的影响力和中国意图的不可捉摸性,支持在经济和政治关系方面坚持西方导向。温和派要求采取更加负责的外交政策,谨慎对待伊朗核计划。他们还寻求深化与伊朗侨民的关系,希望加强这一关系能够帮助解决伊朗最严峻的经济挑战。

伊朗温和派明白,与国际社会达成的核协议是有缺陷的。但他们仍然支持这个协议,希望利用它来争取更多的国内自由。总统鲁哈尼做出了著名的承诺:该协议能弥合伊朗的政治创伤,进一步解决经济问题。这一承诺反映了鲁哈尼更大的算盘:挑战和制约伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)的权力,这一权力的根基是IRGC控制着伊朗经济的大部分。如今,在特朗普的举动下,鲁哈尼的日程,以及整个温和派联盟的日程,都岌岌可危了。

支持核协议的美国人,也清楚它的缺陷。但他们将该协议视为一个吸引反对保守激进派的伊朗人的机会。美国支持者相信,伊朗公民社会和社交媒体的活跃有利于这个国家,希望一个向全球市场开放的伊朗在政治上也变得自由。

该协议的批评者反对说,伊朗在JCPOA生效后仍在继续试射弹道导弹。但认为美国凭借单方面撕毁协议就能遏制伊朗的核和域内动作简直愚不可及。事实上,伊朗核协议的终极目标——减缓核浓缩、中止核试验——是有效的。不管特朗普对协定有什么问题,都必须记住,不论什么国家,都无法解决它所拒绝的问题。而拒绝JCPOA必将鼓励伊朗体制重新开展协议意在遏制或影响的活动。

特朗普对JCOPA的挑战极有可能还会引起其他糟糕的行为。伊朗激进派在域内搞小动作——如支持也门、巴勒斯坦和黎巴嫩的军阀——原因之一是他们相信与美国或以色列的对抗是不可避免的。从这个角度讲,真主党等代理力量是阻止侵略,或在爆发战斗的情况下阻止军事部署的工具。

诚然,伊朗的代理们并没有因为核协议就刀枪入库。但与美国之间的紧张的确有所消弭。如今,因为特朗普的突然翻脸,伊朗和美国发生对抗的可能性死灰复燃,而这必然会加强伊朗代理力量的决心。

简言之,美国单方面废除JCPOA是所有政策选项中最糟糕的一个。不管特朗普说什么,伊朗和美国都会有很多人同意这一观点。

http://prosyn.org/RvocsWN/zh;

Handpicked to read next

  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now