IMF spring meeting Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

Экономикалық оптимизмнің шегі

ВАШИНГТОН – Дүниежүзілік банк және Халықаралық валюта қорының жыл сайынғы көктемгі кездесулері басталғалы, әлемдегі экономикалық түрғыдан болашақ жарқынырақ көрінгендей. Халықаралық қаржы институттары және көптеген жеке сектор ойыншылары, осы жылы 2016 жылға қарағанда айтарлықтай жылдам өсуді жобалап жатыр. Олардың бұл жолғы болжамы қаншалықты сенімді?

Соңғы кезге дейін, көптеген макроэкономикалық көрсеткіштер тұрақты түрде өсу проекцияларында төмен болды. Енді, қарама-қарсы жағдай орын алып жатқан сияқты. ХВҚ-ның соңғы флагмандық есебі бойынша, 2016 жылдағы 3,1% болжамды бағамымен салыстырғанда, 2017 жылы әлемдік ЖІӨ-нің өсуі 3,4% -дан 3,5% -ға дейін болады деп болжады.

Сол сияқты, көп көрсеткішті Brookings - FT TIGER индексі де «кең ауқымды және тұрақты» қалпына келуді көрсетуде. Модельдер, жаңа деректер, және белгілі бір мекеменің немесе болжамдаушының пайымдауына негізделген осы болжамдарға сәйкес, Америка Құрама Штаттары, Ұлыбритания мен Жапония осы өсуге ең көп үлес қосуда. Сонымен қатар Үндістан да жақсы дамып келе жатыр.

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