Trump with foreign diplomates 17 january Pool/Pool

Le illusioni che spingono al rialzo gli indici azionari Usa

NEW HAVEN – I mercati speculativi sono sempre stati vulnerabili all’illusione. Ma vedere la follia nei mercati non dà alcun vantaggio chiaro nel prevedere gli esiti, perché i cambiamenti della forza dell’illusione sono difficili da predire.

Negli Stati Uniti sono entrate in gioco nel campo dei mercati finanziari due importanti illusioni. Una è la percezione premurosamente coltivata che il presidente eletto Donald Trump sia un genio del business in grado di applicare le proprie capacità di fare accordi allo scopo di far tornare grande l’America. L’altra è un’illusione naturale: l’avvicinarsi del Dow Jones ai 20.000 punti. Il Dow Jones Industrial Average sfiora gli oltre 19.000 punti da novembre, e si sprecano le numerose notizie che parlano del flirt con la soglia dei 20.000 punti – che potrebbe essere superata nel momento in cui sarà pubblicato questo articolo. Qualunque cosa accada, i 20.000 punti del Dow Jones avranno un impatto psicologico sui mercati.

Trump non è mai stato chiaro e coerente su come si muoverà da presidente. Gli sgravi fiscali sono chiaramente sulla sua agenda, e lo stimolo potrebbe portare a una risalita degli indici azionari. Una flessione delle imposte sulle imprese dovrebbe tradursi in un rincaro degli indici borsistici, mentre i tagli relativi all’imposta sui redditi personali potrebbero tendere a trascinare a al rialzo i prezzi immobiliari (eventualmente controbilanciato da altri modifiche del sistema tributario).

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