Artistic rendering of Earth

极端天气和全球增长

坎布里奇—直到最近,宏观经济学家的惯常思维一直是短期天气波动对经济活动影响不大。如果3月份的天气反常地温和,那么建筑业也许会雇用更多工人,但到了4月和5月就会出现相反的情况。如果8月份的大雨让人们打消了上街购物的冲动,那么他们会在9月份买更多东西。

但最近,超强厄尔尼诺让最新经济学研究纷纷开始反思这一观点。厄尔尼诺是一种复杂的全球气候事件,其标志是厄瓜多尔和秘鲁太平洋沿岸海水特别温暖。

极端天气显然会对重要的短期宏观经济数据造成影响。它可以让全世界最受关注、也被广泛认为是最准确的经济指标之一的美国月度就业增加或减少100,000人。像今年这样的厄尔尼诺相关天气事件(更准确地说应该是“厄尔尼诺南部震荡”)的影响因为其全球效应而显得尤其巨大。

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