Paul Lachine

Escrever o Futuro

ADIS ABEBA – O que reserva o futuro para a economia global? As condições de vida melhorarão globalmente, à medida que os países pobres de hoje saltam etapas tecnológicas para alcançar os países mais ricos? Ou será que a prosperidade nos escorregará entre os dedos à medida que a ganância e a corrupção nos forem conduzindo ao esgotamento dos recursos vitais e à degradação do meio ambiente do qual depende o bem-estar humano? O maior desafio actual da humanidade consiste em assegurar um mundo de prosperidade em vez de um mundo em ruínas.

Como um romance com dois finais possíveis, a nossa história ainda está por escrever neste novo século. Não há nada de inevitável acerca do alastramento – ou do colapso – da prosperidade. Mais do que conhecemos (ou talvez queiramos admitir), o futuro é uma questão de escolha humana, e não uma mera predição.

Apesar da crise actual na Europa e nos Estados Unidos, o mundo em desenvolvimento tem sustentado o rápido crescimento económico. Enquanto o Fundo Monetário Internacional prevê que as economias avançadas crescerão apenas 1,5% em 2013, o crescimento nos países em vias de desenvolvimento deverá atingir 5,6%. As economias em desenvolvimento na Ásia, que marcam agora o ritmo global, deverão crescer cerca de 7,2%, com a produção na África Subsaariana preparada para crescer a uns saudáveis 5,7%.

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