Paul Lachine

Scrivere il futuro

ADDIS ABABA – Cosa ha in serbo il futuro per l’economia globale? La qualità della vita migliorerà in tutto il mondo, visto che i Paesi poveri di oggi fanno balzi tecnologici per raggiungere i Paesi più ricchi? O la prosperità ci scivolerà tra le dita dal momento che avidità e corruzione ci hanno portato a consumare le risorse vitali e degradare l’ambiente naturale da cui dipende il benessere dell’uomo? L’umanità deve affrontare una sfida davvero impegnativa: garantire un mondo di prosperità invece che un mondo in rovina.

Come un romanzo con due possibili finali, la nostra è una storia che deve ancora essere scritta in questo nuovo secolo. Non c’è nulla di inevitabile sulla diffusione – o il collasso – della prosperità. Più di quanto già sappiamo (o forse vogliamo ammettere), il futuro è una questione di scelta umana e non di mera predizione.

Malgrado l’attuale crisi economica in Europa e negli Stati Uniti, il mondo in via di sviluppo ha sostenuto una rapida crescita economica. Mentre il Fondo monetario internazionale prevede che le economie avanzate cresceranno appena dell’1,5% nel 2013, la crescita dei Paesi in via di sviluppo dovrebbe raggiungere, secondo le previsioni, il 5,6%. Si attende che le economie in via di sviluppo dell’Asia, ora pionieri del mondo, crescano del 7,2%, con la produzione nell’Africa subsahariana destinata a crescere di un robusto 5,7%.

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