Paul Lachine

Wir schreiben unsere Zukunft selbst

ADDIS ABEBA – Was hält die Zukunft für die Weltwirtschaft bereit? Wird der Lebensstandard weltweit steigen, wenn die heutigen armen Länder Schritte in der technologischen Entwicklung überspringen und so zu den reicheren Ländern aufschließen? Oder wird uns der Wohlstand durch die Finger rinnen, weil Gier und Korruption uns verleiten, lebenswichtige Ressourcen zu erschöpfen und die natürliche Umwelt, von der der Mensch abhängig ist, zu zerstören? Die größte Herausforderung, die sich der Menschheit stellt, ist es, statt einer Welt, die in Scherben liegt, eine Welt des Wohlstands zu gewährleisten.

Wie ein Roman mit zwei möglichen Enden ist unsere Geschichte eine, die in diesem neuen Jahrhundert erst noch geschrieben werden muss. Es ist nichts Zwangsläufiges an der Ausweitung – oder dem Zusammenbruch – unseres Wohlstandes. Die Zukunft ist stärker als wir uns bewusst machen (oder eingestehen wollen) durch menschliche Entscheidungen bestimmt; sie passiert nicht einfach.

Trotz anhaltender Wirtschaftskrise in Europa und den USA haben die Entwicklungsländer ein hohes Wirtschaftswachstum aufrecht erhalten können. Der Internationale Währungsfonds sagt für 2013 für die hoch entwickelten Länder ein Wachstum von lediglich 1,5% voraus, für die Entwicklungsländer jedoch von 5,6%. Für die asiatischen Entwicklungsländer – die derzeit weltweit das Tempo vorgeben – wird ein Wachstum von 7,2% erwartet, und die Produktion in den schwarzafrikanischen Ländern dürfte um gesunde 5,7% steigen.

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