Tony Blair Stefan Rousseau/Stringer

再访伊拉克战争

纽约—在经历了七年时间,12卷证据、发现和推论,以及一份执行摘要后,《伊拉克调查报告》——更普通的名称是《奇尔科特报告》(Chilcot Report,以其主席约翰·奇尔科特的名字命名)——终于向所有人开放了。很少有人会从头到尾通读它;光是执行摘要(大大超过100页)就长到应该对它也总结一份执行摘要了。

但如果该报告不被广泛阅读——以及更重要的,不被广泛研究——将是一件巨大的憾事,因为它包含了一些关于外交如何操作、政策如何制定、决策如何做出的有用洞见。它还让我们了解2003年入侵伊拉克的决定及其后果为何是理解当今中东的核心。

该报告的核心主题之一是伊拉克战争本非非打不可,在开战时显然不是。开战的决策部分是基于错误的情报。伊拉克充其量最多只是逐渐积聚的威胁,而绝不是紧迫的威胁。除了动武以外,其他办法——主要是强化土耳其和约旦对联合国向为向萨达姆·侯赛因施压而采取的制裁执行不力的情况——基本上都没有进行细究。外交手段被急匆匆一带而过。

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