May and Trump Alex Wong/Getty Images

El Brexit en un mundo al descampado

BRUSELAS – Cuando se trata de comercio bilateral, las ganancias y pérdidas se distribuyen asimétricamente entre la economía más grande y la más pequeña. En el mejor de los casos, eso sería una mala noticia para el Reino Unido, ya que busca nuevos acuerdos comerciales con la Unión Europea y otros países. Y, para peor, estos no son los mejores tiempos.

La teoría económica predice que erigir nuevas barreras comerciales perjudica a ambas partes. Pero los principios económicos también sugieren que es probable que la mayor de las dos economías pierda menos.

Por ejemplo, en el caso de un arancel la menor demanda de la economía más grande tenderá a empujar a la baja los precios de los bienes que importe. Es poco probable que la economía más pequeña logre tener un efecto suficiente sobre la demanda global de los bienes que importa y, por tanto, sobre sus precios.

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