May and Trump Alex Wong/Getty Images

Brexit in eine schöne neue Welt

BRÜSSEL – Was den bilateralen Handel angeht, so sind die Gewinne zwischen größeren und kleineren Volkswirtschaften ungleich verteilt. Selbst in guten Zeiten wäre das eine schlechte Nachricht für das Vereinigte Königreich, wenn es sich um neue Handelsabkommen mit der Europäischen Union und anderen bemüht. Und dies sind keine guten Zeiten.

Die Wirtschaftstheorie sagt vorher, dass die Errichtung neuer Handelsbarrieren beiden Seiten schaden wird. Doch legen wirtschaftliche Grundsätze zugleich nahe, dass die größere der beiden Volkswirtschaften weniger verlieren dürfte.

Im Falle eines Zolls etwa wird die geringere Nachfrage seitens der größeren Volkswirtschaft tendenziell die Preise für die von ihr importierten Waren nach unten drücken. Die kleinere Volkswirtschaft dürfte nicht genug Einfluss auf die Gesamtnachfrage der von ihr importierten Waren und damit auf deren Preis haben.

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