Economics

准备迎接特朗普贸易战

Nov 21, 2017 Bill Emmott

伦敦—美国总统是毛泽东主义者所谓的纸老虎吗？还是应该认真对待他的聒噪式威胁？这个问题在朝鲜核问题上尤其重要。但在特朗普经历了相当低姿态的12天亚洲之行后，关于朝鲜半岛冲突的担忧有所消退。

但这次亚洲之旅带来了另一个问题，世界有充足的理由需要认真以对。在担任总统的第二年，特朗普政府有可能将目光瞄准贸易，这表明爆发更多贸易战的可能性大大地提高了。

在执政的第一年里，特朗普向其他国家的不公平贸易行为“开炮”，一如他在2016年竞选期间的做派；但他并没有拿出多少实际行动。不作为是可以理解的。特朗普要依靠中国——美国最大的贸易伙伴之一向朝鲜政权施压，同时美国企业也在竭力游说不要采取任何可能阻碍贸易的措施。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 11 Comments on this article

Alex Aslanidis Dec 31, 2017

"Asian and European countries, in particular, should be preparing for the worst by negotiating their own trade agreements with one another to preempt American mercantilism."

You mean the countries that actually applied mercantilism (by suppressing wages and domestic demand) should prepare for the actions (that haven't happened yet) of the country that hasn't applied mercantilism?

Er, OK.
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Anselm Dohle-Beltinger Dec 7, 2017

Just gave a look at the current accounts: the US might be able to pull of bullying Europe because it doesn't support the US debt that much but it can't do so with China without cutting of the very leg they are standing on.
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Barry Rosenfeld Nov 28, 2017

THE "AMERICAN CENTURY" ENDED WITH THE 2000 ELECTION.
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Andrew Cole Nov 24, 2017

There are many players in this game, whatever his rhetoric putting "protectionism" all on Trumps head is something you have to demonstrate not just assert. It seems to me that mercantilism by China and the EU (German controlled executive with a Francophone bureaucracy) is triggering Trumps actions, so an alternative solution is to deescalate. An example of an action to help would be for the Euro to be run with Germany and other richer countries making transfer payments to the south without leeching off Scandinavia and the UK who are not Euro members. Do that and demand goes up, but overall German competitive advantage goes down as taxes go up. An example of non Trump Mercantilism is the EUs colonial tariff policy used to wage economic war against poor African states by charging vastly more for processed goods imports than it does on raw coffee etc.
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Mauricio Duran-Loriga Nov 23, 2017

Task number one of any US President is to keep the dollar as the reserve currency. After the "Nixon moment" the dollar almost lost that status, and a huge behind the scenes operation was orchestrated around oil to create an outlandish demand for US dollars.

European mantra of "irreversible" exchange rate of the Euro regarding the previous local currencies makes me wonder how soon an "unexpected" reversal of that mantra will be unleashed for the dollar to buy some additional time. China and Russia clapping along the slaughter of several European generations...

WTO, NAFTA, APEC, trade wars, bilateral trade agreements, is just noise.
The real action is at currency level.
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M M Nov 22, 2017

We are still in the spill over of the Obama years....the Trump effect has not yet invaded the system ...with the few exceptions that have so far been circumvented.
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B Wilds Nov 22, 2017

When Trump shapes his policy he should be aware of where our money is going. Follow the money and the United States huge trade deficit with Mexico becomes even more disturbing when you understand where the money eventually ends up.

When you start thinking about all the money and jobs we shift into Mexico each year you would think by now Mexico would be rolling in cash. A bit of research quickly confirms that the money Mexico receives by way of trading with America quickly passes through its lands and flows to Asia. It could be argued that when all is said and done we are still transferring our wealth to the far east only by the scenic route. More on the problem with this in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2017/11/follow-money-trade-deficit-with-mexico_21.html
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Steve Hurst Nov 21, 2017

'...America’s big bilateral trade deficits with countries such as China, Japan, Germany, and Mexico are proof that America is being taken for a ride by its competitors.' What to do then? China hides behind N Korea, Japans sells because people want their stuff, Germany is not Germany but the Eurozone, and Mexico is now built into the US supply chain and dislodging it is difficult. I don't expect much Trump progress. Damage the WTO - How does that help? Its a 2 way street and the US use it to push export issues like their wretched bananas and the US is one of the most active with the WTO.
- M M Nov 22, 2017
  
  Steve, as you had said it repeatedly on many occasions...." There are no more consumers".....
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