Donald Trump is Sworn in as President Jim Bourg/Getty Images

漂流在特朗普的新世纪

华盛顿——众所周知,已故英国历史学家埃里克·霍布斯鲍姆(Eric Hobsbawm)将1914年弗朗兹·费迪南大公遇刺和1991年苏联解体之间的这段时期称之为“浓缩的二十世纪”。对霍布斯鲍姆而言,冷战的结束标志着世界事务进入到独一无二的新时代。

现在,因为掌握了更多情况,我们应当重新思考这一分类。柏林墙倒塌后的1/4个世纪其实并不是与过去决裂,而实际却是之前局面的高潮和延续。但唐纳德·特朗普当选美国总统举行的就职典礼却表现出与过去明确的决裂;漫长的二十世纪现在已经终结。

现在猜测未来还为时尚早,就像1914年6月。自从特朗普竞选获胜后,人们普遍预测世界将恢复到十九世纪的势力范围,美国、俄罗斯、中国还有德国等主要力量将在日益分裂的国际体制下主导属于各自的领域。

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