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Trump l'imprévisible et le système monétaire international

HONG KONG – Il est difficile de prédire ce que fera Donald Trump en janvier, une fois installé à la Maison Blanche. Mais il est presque sûr qu'il diminuera les impôts et augmentera les dépenses d'infrastructures. C'est pourquoi les marchés financiers anticipent une accélération de la croissance aux USA – ce qui fait monter la valeur du dollar par rapport à la plupart des autres devises, dont le yuan chinois, et déclanche une fuite des capitaux des pays émergents.

Que Trump taxe ou pas les produits chinois, une hausse du dollar réduira la compétitivité des produits américains. Or selon le FMI, en juin le dollar était déjà surévalué de 10% à 20%.

Ce n'est pas tout. Le commerce était considéré comme le principal facteur qui régit les taux de change qui sont sensés évoluer de manière à corriger les déséquilibres extérieurs d'un pays. Or depuis quelques années les flux de capitaux ont augmenté au point de peser bien davantage que le commerce sur les taux de change. Dans ce contexte, l'optimisme des marchés quant à la croissance américaine pourrait conduire à des déséquilibres toujours plus grands et peut-être même perturber le système monétaire international.

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