5 year anniversary of Arab Spring Fethi Belaid/Getty Images

Экономический ультиматум арабскому миру

ВАШИНГТОН – Если страны Ближнего Востока не начнут добиваться реального прогресса в проведении фундаментальных политических и экономических реформ, продолжение хаоса в регионе станет неизбежным. Система рентной экономики, которую власти поддерживали десятилетиями, разваливается, поэтому им необходимо начать трудный – но не невозможный – процесс установления новых социальных контрактов.

Существующий социальный контракт в арабских странах начал слабеть на рубеже столетий, когда правительства, с их раздутыми бюджетами и бюрократией, потеряли возможность адекватно обеспечивать базовые услуги (здравоохранение и образование), создавать достаточное число рабочих мест, выплачивать продовольственные и топливные субсидии. Однако, несмотря на сокращение государственных выплат, руководство большинства стран продолжало настаивать на том, что народ должен соблюдать свою часть контракта, то есть не участвовать каким-то значимым образом в политической жизни.

У арабских правительств была возможность сохранять неэффективную экономику десятилетиями, благодаря доходам от продажи нефти. На протяжении многих лет большинство арабских стран, так или иначе, извлекали выгоду из обширных запасов нефти и газа на Ближнем Востоке. Страны-производители углеводородов направляли свои прибыли на покупку лояльности граждан, по сути, создав социальные государства, а страны, которые не производят нефть, получали из государств, богатых ресурсами, финансовую помощь, инвестиции, а также денежные переводы работающих там соотечественников.

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