5 year anniversary of Arab Spring Fethi Belaid/Getty Images

L’ultimatum economico per il mondo arabo

WASHINGTON, DC – Se i paesi del Medio Oriente non iniziano a compiere dei reali passi avanti sul fronte delle riforme politiche ed economiche, saranno inevitabili altri disordini nella regione. Ora che i sistemi degli stati redditieri (i cosiddetti “rentier state”) sfruttati per decenni dai governi sono giunti a un punto di rottura, i politici devono iniziare il difficile, ma non impossibile, processo volto a stabilire nuovi patti sociali.

Quel patto nei paesi arabi ha iniziato ad erodersi a cavallo del secolo, quando i governi con bilanci gonfiati ed elefantiatici apparati burocratici non sono più riusciti a garantire un’adeguata fornitura dei servizi di base quali sanità ed istruzione, a creare un numero sufficiente di posti di lavoro o a sostenere i sussidi sui generi alimentari e sui combustibili. Malgrado i ridotti benefici pubblici, la maggior parte dei leader continua a insistere sul fatto che i popoli di questi paesi adempiano al patto senza partecipare in modo significativo alla vita pubblica.

Per decenni i governi arabi sono riusciti a sostenere economie inefficienti perché dipendenti dalle rendite petrolifere. Negli ultimi decenni, gran parte dei paesi arabi ha beneficiato in un modo o nell’altro delle abbondanti riserve di gas e petrolio del Medio Oriente. I paesi produttori di idrocarburi hanno impiegato i propri profitti per comprare la lealtà dei cittadini e stabilire quali fossero effettivamente gli stati sociali, mentre i paesi che non producono petrolio hanno goduto dei vantaggi derivanti dagli aiuti internazionali, dagli afflussi di capitale e dalle rimesse inviate dai connazionali che lavorano nei paesi ricchi di risorse.

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