Le réchauffement climatique sans l’angoisse

MALMÖ – Le 26 septembre prochain, le Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat (GIEC) présentera le compte-rendu de son dernier Rapport d’évaluation, le cinquième en 23 ans. Si le GIEC n’est pas parfait – il avait fait grand bruit en annonçant à tort que les glaciers himalayens auraient disparu en 2035, alors qu’ils le seront plus probablement en 2350 – les nombreux experts qui le composent nous donnent en général les informations les plus fiables sur la question controversée du réchauffement global.

Ce rapport ayant fait l’objet de nombreuses fuites, son contenu est connu pour l’essentiel. Et parce qu’il est le quatrième de la sorte, nous savons également comment il sera appréhendé au plan politique. Mais parce que vingt ans d’efforts visant à corriger le changement climatique n’ont rien donné de tangible, il est peut-être temps d’envisager une nouvelle stratégie.

La principale conclusion du rapport est que le réchauffement climatique est bien réel et essentiellement d’origine anthropique. Que le GIEC soit plus certain aujourd’hui (à 95 pour cent, contre 90 pour cent en 2007) que l’activité humaine est bien à l’origine de plus de la moitié de l’élévation des températures depuis 1950 sera abondamment débattu. Mais cette conclusion ne fait que confirmer ce que nous savons depuis longtemps – que brûler des combustibles fossiles produit du CO2 qui tend à réchauffer la planète. Comme l’a twitté le climatologue Andrew Dexler de l’université Texas A&M, « Résumé du prochain rapport du GIEC : “Exactement ce que nous vous avions dit dans les rapports de 2007, 2001, 1995, 1990“… ».

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