不要对全球变暖充满恐惧

马尔默——9月26日,联合国政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)将提交23年中第五份、也是最新一份评估报告的摘要。虽然IPCC并不完美——它众所周知曾经预测喜马拉雅冰川将于2035年消失,其实冰川消失的年份更有可能是2350年——但一般情况下IPCC的众多专家仍为我们提供了有关全球气候变暖这一棘手问题的最可靠的信息。

大规模泄露已经让报告内容为外界所知。并且因为已经有过四次先例,人们已经对报告的政治作用非常熟悉。但因为20年来解决气候变化问题的努力还没有取得实质性的成果,这次也许应该探索新的策略。

新报告的基本结论是全球变暖切实存在,而且大多可以归咎于人类活动。报告花费大量篇幅表述这样一个观点:IPCC现在对1950年来全球升温的半数以上由人类引起这一结论更有把握(把握性已经从2007年的90%达到95%)。但这仅仅证实了我们早已知道的结论——燃烧化石燃料释放二氧化碳,进而导致地球温度升高。正像得克萨斯州农工大学气候学家安德鲁·德斯勒在推特上所说的那样:“即将发布的IPCC报告主旨:‘和我们2007、2001、1995、1990年报告并没有多少差别…”

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