Global warming ice caps melting Mario Tama / Getty Images

Un realismo radical en torno al cambio climático

BERLÍN – La política convencional, por definición, no está bien preparada para imaginar un cambio radical. Pero el pasado diciembre, en París, 196 gobiernos llegaron a un acuerdo sobre la necesidad de limitar el calentamiento global a no más de 1,5 °C sobre los niveles preindustriales, un objetivo que promete generar precisamente esa transformación. Alcanzarlo obligará a superar serios obstáculos políticos, de lo que da muestra el hecho de que algunos proponen soluciones que terminarán haciendo más mal que bien.

Una idea que recibió mucho impulso se centra en la necesidad de desarrollar intervenciones tecnológicas a gran escala para controlar el termostato planetario. Los partidarios de las tecnologías de geoingeniería aseguran que las medidas convencionales de adaptación y mitigación no están reduciendo las emisiones lo suficientemente rápido para impedir un calentamiento peligroso; añaden que para limitar el daño y el sufrimiento de las personas se necesitarán tecnologías como la “captura y almacenamiento de carbono” (CCS por la sigla en inglés).

El Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático de las Naciones Unidas parece estar de acuerdo. En su quinto informe de evaluación, expone escenarios de cumplimiento de los objetivos climáticos de París centrados en el concepto de “emisiones negativas”, esto es, la capacidad de extraer el exceso de dióxido de carbono de la atmósfera.

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