rally in pyongyang Kim Won-jin/AFP/Getty Images

中国的“双重冻结”计

克莱蒙特,加利福尼亚—朝鲜独裁者金正恩说,将为其对朝鲜犯下的“滔天罪行付出千倍代价”。美国总统特朗普警告朝鲜将经历“世界前所未有的火与怒。”金正恩威胁要向美国的领土关岛发射四枚导弹。特朗普承诺如果金正恩兑现这一威胁,或发出其他威胁的话,将“将真正后悔”并且“很快后悔”。

随着这两个有核国家领导人之间前所未有的白热化嘴仗和公然军事威胁不断升级,全世界的理性之士都在怀疑是否有和平之道解决这场危机。有些人提出,出路在于“双重冻结”,即朝鲜冻结其核和导弹活动,换取美国和韩国冻结联合军事演习。

乍一看,这一选择——最初由中国提出,并获得俄罗斯支持——似乎是合理的妥协。失去了测试核和导弹技术的朝鲜,其军事能力将被固定在既成阶段。它不再拥有具备可靠远程能力的强大武器,而只拥有可能无法实现核弹头微型化的不可靠的武器。

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