Wie man Fluchtgeschwindigkeit erreicht

NEWPORT BEACH – Es kommt nicht oft vor, dass man mit Überzeugung sagen kann, ein einziges Mittel könne dazu führen, dass es Milliarden von Menschen überall auf der Welt deutlich besser geht, und dass es dies auf dauerhafte und solidarische Weise tut und so das Wohlergehen aktueller und künftiger Generationen steigert. Dies jedoch ist heute der Fall.

Das Mittel, an das ich denke, ist natürlich ein erhöhtes Wirtschaftswachstum – das Einzige, was die Lebensstandards erhöhen, übermäßige Ungleichheit verringern, die Aussichten auf Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen verbessern, Handelsspannungen abbauen und sogar den geopolitischen Druck verringern könnte. Und die meisten Prognostiker – einschließlich des Internationalen Währungsfonds und der Weltbank – gehen inzwischen davon aus, dass sich das globale Wachstum 2014 erholen wird und dass es, was die wichtigen Wirtschaftsregionen angeht, ausgewogener sein wird.

Derartige Prognosen spiegeln drei willkommene Entwicklungen wieder. Zunächst einmal wird Europa die Rezession überwinden, wobei die Volkswirtschaften an der Peripherie von der relativen stärksten Verbesserung ihrer Wachstumsaussichten profitieren werden. Zugleich wird für die USA ein jährliches BIP-Wachstum von 3% nicht länger außer Reichweite sein. Und die Schwellenvolkswirtschaften werden Halt finden in Chinas inzwischen langsamerem, aber nach wie vor robustem jährlichen Wachstum von 7%.

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