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阿拉伯世界的可持续经济

华盛顿—最近几十年来,数百万阿拉伯人摆脱了极端贫困。但如今,拜经济失败和暴力失序的恶性循环所赐,进步面临减速甚至反转。为了防止产生这样的结果,阿拉伯国家必须迅速行动起来构建更加可持续的经济,其基础是更大的私人部门创造力和活力、改善的公共服务,以及创造地区和全球公共品。

实现这一目标的第一步是认识潜在成功壁垒的规模和性质。如今,阿拉伯国家面临缓慢的总GDP增长和日益收紧的财政约束。教育、培训和医疗普及度方面的差异——部分反映了这些财政约束——加剧了已在恶化的不平等性。

从地区看,这样的环境可能主张政治极化和暴力冲突,带来流离失所、生命损失、基础设施破坏和巨大的经济成本。尽管经济发展不能保证和平,但发展失败确实常常带来极端主义和暴力,因为群情汹涌往往伴随制度合法性损失。而周边冲突可能产生不稳定的溢出效应,从而加剧动荡风险。

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