

Nearly three months after Russia launched its invasion, Western countries appear more committed than ever to Ukraine’s defense, and, in some quarters, to Russia’s defeat. We asked PS commentators what outcome the West, Russia, and Ukrainians themselves can realistically expect.
华盛顿—最近几十年来,数百万阿拉伯人摆脱了极端贫困。但如今,拜经济失败和暴力失序的恶性循环所赐,进步面临减速甚至反转。为了防止产生这样的结果,阿拉伯国家必须迅速行动起来构建更加可持续的经济,其基础是更大的私人部门创造力和活力、改善的公共服务,以及创造地区和全球公共品。
实现这一目标的第一步是认识潜在成功壁垒的规模和性质。如今,阿拉伯国家面临缓慢的总GDP增长和日益收紧的财政约束。教育、培训和医疗普及度方面的差异——部分反映了这些财政约束——加剧了已在恶化的不平等性。
从地区看,这样的环境可能主张政治极化和暴力冲突,带来流离失所、生命损失、基础设施破坏和巨大的经济成本。尽管经济发展不能保证和平,但发展失败确实常常带来极端主义和暴力,因为群情汹涌往往伴随制度合法性损失。而周边冲突可能产生不稳定的溢出效应,从而加剧动荡风险。
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