Aleppo Syria George Ourfalian/Stringer

Le lezioni sobrie di Aleppo

NEW YORK – La caduta di Aleppo alle forze fedeli al presidente siriano Bashar al-Assad non è né la fine dell'inizio né l'inizio della fine della guerra civile siriana durata cinque anni e mezzo – una guerra che è anche, per certi versi, un conflitto globale. La prossima grande battaglia sarà combattuta nella provincia di Idlib; l'unica domanda è quando. E anche dopo, la guerra continuerà a marcire in varie parti di quello che rimarrà un paese diviso.

Anche così, ora è un buon momento per fare il punto e concentrarsi su quanto si è appreso, anche solo per imparare da esso. Il poco nella storia è inevitabile, e il risultato in Siria è il risultato di ciò che i governi, i gruppi e gli individui hanno scelto di fare - e che hanno scelto di non fare. In effetti, non agire in Siria ha dimostrato di essere importante come agire.

Ciò non è mai stato più chiaro di quando gli Stati Uniti non hanno rispettato la minaccia di far pagare il governo di Assad per l’uso di armi chimiche. Si è rivelata un'occasione persa non solo per modificare l’impeto del conflitto, ma anche per sottolineare il principio che ogni governo che usa le armi di distruzione di massa se ne pentirà. L'esecuzione, dopo tutto, è essenziale per l'efficacia della futura deterrenza.

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