Aleppo Syria George Ourfalian/Stringer

阿勒颇的警钟

发自纽约——对于已持续五年半的叙利亚内战来说,第二大城市阿勒颇落入忠于总统巴沙尔·阿萨德的武装力量之手既不意味着局势已经完全拉开帷幕,也不意味着战争即将终结。这场战争是一场代理人式的,区域性,甚至在一定程度上全球性的冲突。下一场重大战役预计将在伊德利卜省展开;唯一的问题仅仅是何时开打而已。即使在那以后,战争还将在这个分裂国家的各个地区延续下去。

即使如此,哪怕仅仅是想从中学点什么的话,如今也是个好时机去审视和聚焦于从中得到的教训。历史上很少事件是不可避免的,而叙利亚当前的局势也是政府,团体和个人选择做什么——以及选择不去做什么——所共同作用的结果。事实证明就算对叙利亚袖手旁观,也会跟介入干涉一样产生某些后果。

而当前比任何时候都更明确的一点,就是美国并未兑现其使阿萨德政府为使用化学武器付出代价的威胁。这个不仅错失了改变冲突势头的机会,也违背了任何使用大规模杀伤性武器的政府都要后悔的原则。毕竟执法能力才是未来威慑有效性的关键。

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