创新之谜

纽约—环顾世界,人们对以硅谷为象征的科技创新有着无尽的热情。在这些人看来,美国的聪慧代表着它的真正比较优势,其他国家都在尽力模仿。但在这里有一个迷:很难看出这种创新对GDP统计数字的贡献。

今天所发生的事情与几十年前个人电脑时代肇始时有几分相似。1987年,因在增长方面的开创性贡献而荣获诺贝尔奖的经济学家罗伯特·索洛(Robert Solow)哀叹:“电脑时代的印记随处可见,就是在生产率数据中看不到。”对于这一点,可能的原因有好几个。

也许GDP并不真正能够体现电脑时代的创新所带来的生活水平的提高。或者这一创新并没有热烈支持者所认为的那么意义重大。事实表明,两者兼而有之。

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